Closing spread
NO -9
Total
45
Model margin
+1.2est.
DET perspective
Push chance
1.0%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play-0.148
- 39.0%Success rate34.3%
- +0.038EPA / dropback-0.156
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.134
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.1%
- 40.9%Third-down rate29.8%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
- 1.94Points / drive0.96
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.005EPA / play allowed+0.065
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 8–6 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 54.6 points. DET are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 17 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NO | Q1 12:03 | 3 | -3 | Opp touchdown | 0–10 |
| DET | Q1 10:31 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–10 |
| NO | Q1 10:31 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DET | Q1 9:23 | 7 | 31 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| NO | Q1 5:41 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 0–13 |
| DET | Q1 3:20 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–13 |
| NO | Q1 2:26 | 5 | 4 | Punt | 0–13 |
| DET | Q2 14:50 | 13 | 68 | Turnover on downs | 0–13 |
| NO | Q2 8:00 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 0–13 |
| DET | Q2 6:23 | 3 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–20 |
| NO | Q2 4:53 | 13 | 86 | Touchdown | 7–20 |
| DET | Q2 1:25 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 7–20 |
| NO | Q2 0:16 | 1 | 10 | End of half | 7–20 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 48 | Turnover | 7–20 |
| DET | Q3 9:51 | 6 | 36 | Field goal | 7–23 |
| NO | Q3 7:24 | 8 | 63 | Touchdown | 15–23 |
| DET | Q3 3:41 | 7 | 20 | Punt | 15–23 |
| NO | Q3 0:09 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 15–23 |
| DET | Q4 14:45 | 6 | 17 | Field goal | 15–26 |
| NO | Q4 11:47 | 5 | 13 | Turnover | 15–26 |
| DET | Q4 10:00 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 15–26 |
| NO | Q4 6:03 | 10 | 87 | Touchdown | 21–26 |
| DET | Q4 3:41 | 4 | 56 | End of half | 21–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 27/48 | 269 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 12 | 61 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Aaron Brooks | 4 | 49 | 12.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 6 | 13 | 87 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 8 | 10 | 67 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 6 | 8 | 55 | 1 |
| Jake Reed | 2 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 3 | 4 | 14 | 1 |
| David Sloan | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Michael L. Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Boo Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 20/35 | 267 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 18 | 65 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Az-Zahir Hakim | 3 | 6 | 98 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 7 | 8 | 78 | 1 |
| Larry Foster | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Mikhael Ricks | 1 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Scotty Anderson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 3 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.23