Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
38.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.092
- 41.7%Success rate38.4%
- +0.151EPA / dropback-0.052
- -0.177EPA / rush-0.160
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.2%
- 38.8%Third-down rate43.6%
- 44.5%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 1.46Points / drive1.06
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.060EPA / play allowed+0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. ARI are 12-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 19/36 | 199 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 13 | 55 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ike Hilliard | 4 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 4 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 6 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 4 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Sean Bennett | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 23/32 | 168 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 17 | 92 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 11 | 10 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 7 | 9 | 1.3 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 5 | 5 | 39 | 1 |
| Freddie Jones | 5 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 6 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| David Boston | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Bryan Gilmore | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.6%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.85
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.29