2002 · Week 4

Final

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

7·21

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

Sun Devil Stadium · outdoors · grass · 90°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

NYG -3

Total

38.5

Model margin

-1.3est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.008EPA / play-0.092
  • 41.7%Success rate38.4%
  • +0.151EPA / dropback-0.052
  • -0.177EPA / rush-0.160
  • 9.6%Explosive rate7.2%
  • 38.8%Third-down rate43.6%
  • 44.5%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 1.46Points / drive1.06
  • 2.3%Turnover rate3.4%
  • -0.060EPA / play allowed+0.083

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. ARI are 12-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ARI @ NYG24–36NYG
2023 · W2NYG @ ARI31–28NYG
2020 · W14ARI @ NYG26–7ARI
2019 · W7ARI @ NYG27–21ARI
2017 · W16NYG @ ARI0–23ARI
2014 · W2ARI @ NYG25–14ARI
2011 · W4NYG @ ARI31–27NYG
2009 · W7ARI @ NYG24–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–ARI
ARIQ1 15:003-6Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:591051Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 8:38511Punt7–0
NYGQ1 5:46444Turnover7–0
ARIQ1 3:50520Punt7–0
NYGQ1 1:08521Punt7–0
ARIQ2 12:44931Turnover on downs7–0
NYGQ2 8:26926Punt7–0
ARIQ2 5:011447Missed field goal7–6
NYGQ2 0:1410Opp touchdown7–7
ARIQ2 0:0400Opp touchdown7–7
NYGQ2 0:0400End of half7–7
NYGQ3 15:00429Turnover7–7
ARIQ3 12:4930Punt7–7
NYGQ3 11:54417Punt7–7
ARIQ3 9:30925Punt7–7
NYGQ3 2:3745Turnover on downs7–7
ARIQ3 1:3427Turnover7–7
NYGQ3 0:54515Punt7–7
ARIQ4 14:04952Touchdown7–14
NYGQ4 10:36427Punt7–14
ARIQ4 8:311278Touchdown7–21
NYGQ4 2:13828Turnover on downs7–21
ARIQ4 1:112-2End of half7–21

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins19/3619902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber13554.21
Ron Dayne320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ike Hilliard46560
Jeremy Shockey47560
Tiki Barber68480
Amani Toomer47320
Sean Bennett1270
Dan Campbell0100
Ron Dayne0100
Ron Dixon0300

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer23/3216810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marcel Shipp17925.41
Thomas Jones11100.90
Jake Plummer791.30
MarTay Jenkins1-9-9.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcel Shipp55391
Freddie Jones55340
MarTay Jenkins68330
Frank Sanders35280
David Boston25180
Bryan Gilmore11140
Jake Plummer1120
Thomas Jones0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.6%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.85
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.29