Closing spread
OAK -6.5
Total
45
Model margin
+0.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. OAK are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 32/46 | 398 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 11 | 26 | 2.4 | 1 |
| John Simon | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 6 | 10 | 99 | 0 |
| Drew Bennett | 6 | 9 | 75 | 1 |
| Justin McCareins | 2 | 3 | 57 | 1 |
| Kevin Dyson | 7 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| John Simon | 4 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 4 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
4.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.58
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.54
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.