Closing spread
OAK -6.5
Total
45
Model margin
+0.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. OAK are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| LV | Q1 14:46 | 1 | 17 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| TEN | Q1 14:39 | 6 | 17 | Opp touchdown | 0–14 |
| LV | Q1 11:06 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–14 |
| TEN | Q1 11:06 | 3 | 13 | Opp touchdown | 0–21 |
| TEN | Q1 9:36 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| LV | Q1 2:43 | 8 | 99 | Field goal | 7–24 |
| TEN | Q2 13:42 | 6 | 37 | Turnover on downs | 7–24 |
| LV | Q2 10:02 | 8 | 26 | Turnover | 7–24 |
| TEN | Q2 6:12 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–24 |
| LV | Q2 4:33 | 9 | 86 | Touchdown | 7–31 |
| TEN | Q2 0:57 | 4 | 5 | End of half | 7–31 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 38 | Punt | 7–31 |
| TEN | Q3 11:22 | 5 | 15 | Opp touchdown | 7–38 |
| TEN | Q3 10:10 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 13–38 |
| LV | Q3 7:08 | 10 | 43 | Punt | 13–38 |
| TEN | Q3 2:53 | 6 | 60 | Touchdown | 19–38 |
| LV | Q3 0:30 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 19–38 |
| TEN | Q4 13:42 | 5 | 72 | Touchdown | 25–38 |
| LV | Q4 11:39 | 8 | 72 | Touchdown | 25–45 |
| TEN | Q4 7:30 | 2 | -2 | Turnover | 25–45 |
| LV | Q4 6:28 | 3 | 58 | Touchdown | 25–52 |
| TEN | Q4 5:21 | 7 | 50 | Turnover | 25–52 |
| LV | Q4 3:04 | 5 | 12 | End of half | 25–52 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 32/46 | 398 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 11 | 26 | 2.4 | 1 |
| John Simon | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 6 | 10 | 99 | 0 |
| Drew Bennett | 6 | 9 | 75 | 1 |
| Justin McCareins | 2 | 3 | 57 | 1 |
| Kevin Dyson | 7 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| John Simon | 4 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 4 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
4.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.58
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.54
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.