Closing spread
CAR -5
Total
35
Model margin
+3.9est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.092EPA / play-0.177
- 38.4%Success rate35.3%
- -0.052EPA / dropback-0.144
- -0.160EPA / rush-0.219
- 7.2%Explosive rate9.1%
- 43.6%Third-down rate29.3%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
- 1.06Points / drive0.82
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.8%
- +0.083EPA / play allowed-0.112
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 14–7 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. CAR are 13-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 15 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 11:59 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 9:38 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 6:48 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 5:13 | 9 | 49 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 0:21 | 7 | 24 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q2 12:31 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q2 10:23 | 1 | 6 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q2 10:13 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| CAR | Q2 8:44 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 3–0 |
| ARI | Q2 5:07 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CAR | Q2 3:32 | 5 | 44 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| ARI | Q2 1:58 | 9 | 50 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| CAR | Q2 0:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–7 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 59 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| ARI | Q3 8:52 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–10 |
| CAR | Q3 7:49 | 3 | 42 | Turnover | 6–10 |
| ARI | Q3 6:12 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 6–10 |
| CAR | Q3 4:43 | 7 | 19 | Field goal | 6–13 |
| ARI | Q3 1:29 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 6–13 |
| CAR | Q4 14:32 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 6–13 |
| ARI | Q4 12:45 | 11 | 47 | Turnover on downs | 6–13 |
| CAR | Q4 7:41 | 4 | 2 | Turnover | 6–13 |
| ARI | Q4 5:44 | 7 | 68 | Touchdown | 13–13 |
| CAR | Q4 2:38 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 13–13 |
| ARI | Q4 1:26 | 7 | 47 | Field goal | 16–13 |
| CAR | Q4 0:16 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 16–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 18/40 | 221 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Anderson | 23 | 61 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Sanders | 4 | 6 | 70 | 0 |
| David Boston | 3 | 11 | 43 | 0 |
| Damien Anderson | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 2 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Freddie Jones | 3 | 4 | 28 | 1 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Peete | 20/34 | 196 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 18 | 49 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Rodney Peete | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Karl Hankton | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Dee Brown | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 5 | 9 | 79 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 5 | 7 | 77 | 1 |
| Lamar Smith | 5 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Dee Brown | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Bright | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.86