Closing spread
CLE -6
Total
36.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play+0.007
- 41.6%Success rate42.2%
- -0.044EPA / dropback+0.050
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.064
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.9%
- 38.2%Third-down rate40.7%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 1.09Points / drive1.59
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.021EPA / play allowed-0.025
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Redman | 19/30 | 208 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 26 | 187 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Chris Redman | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Stokley | 4 | 5 | 78 | 2 |
| Todd Heap | 4 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 4 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 5 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Alan Ricard | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| John Jones | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 16/26 | 216 | 1 | 2 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 13/23 | 180 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamel White | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| William Green | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Quincy Morgan | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Northcutt | 8 | 11 | 165 | 2 |
| Andre Davis | 5 | 8 | 73 | 0 |
| Quincy Morgan | 5 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 4 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 2 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| Aaron Shea | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| William Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.4%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.69
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.26