2002 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Chris Redman

26·21

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CLE -6

Total

36.5

Model margin

+4.3est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBrowns
  • -0.058EPA / play+0.007
  • 41.6%Success rate42.2%
  • -0.044EPA / dropback+0.050
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.064
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.9%
  • 38.2%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 1.09Points / drive1.59
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.021EPA / play allowed-0.025

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. CLE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CLE
BALQ1 15:00947Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:5630Punt0–0
BALQ1 8:2130Punt0–0
CLEQ1 7:5738Punt0–0
BALQ1 6:2234Punt0–0
CLEQ1 4:54943Punt0–0
BALQ2 14:411184Touchdown7–0
CLEQ2 9:5110Turnover7–0
BALQ2 9:35631Field goal10–0
CLEQ2 5:46517Punt10–0
BALQ2 2:42618Field goal13–0
CLEQ3 15:00325Turnover13–0
BALQ3 14:00356Touchdown20–0
CLEQ3 13:21645Turnover20–0
BALQ3 10:3038Punt20–0
CLEQ3 8:38623Punt20–0
BALQ3 5:23484Field goal23–0
CLEQ3 3:01769Touchdown23–8
BALQ4 14:15945Turnover23–8
CLEQ4 10:521087Touchdown23–15
BALQ4 7:5337Punt23–15
CLEQ4 6:1010Turnover23–15
BALQ4 6:05625Field goal26–15
CLEQ4 3:301171Touchdown26–21
BALQ4 0:5800Turnover26–21
CLEQ4 0:57945Turnover26–21

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Redman19/3020820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis261877.20
Brandon Stokley199.00
Chester Taylor372.30
Chris Redman221.00
Travis Taylor2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Stokley45782
Todd Heap47530
Travis Taylor48410
Jamal Lewis55260
Alan Ricard1150
Chester Taylor1150
John Jones0200
Ron Johnson0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch16/2621612
Kelly Holcomb13/2318022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamel White7344.90
Tim Couch2147.00
Kelly Holcomb294.50
Dennis Northcutt177.00
William Green420.50
Quincy Morgan1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dennis Northcutt8111652
Andre Davis58730
Quincy Morgan57680
Kevin Johnson48360
Jamel White46360
Mark Campbell2591
Aaron Shea1190
William Green0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

3.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.4%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.69
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+4.26