Closing spread
IND -13.5
Total
43
Model margin
+4.6est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play+0.016
- 43.4%Success rate44.3%
- -0.085EPA / dropback+0.112
- -0.027EPA / rush-0.138
- 6.3%Explosive rate7.7%
- 39.3%Third-down rate44.5%
- 50.2%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 1.04Points / drive1.70
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.8%
- +0.080EPA / play allowed-0.065
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.1 points. IND are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 31/43 | 244 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 23 | 164 | 7.1 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson | 6 | 12 | 72 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 4 | 5 | 54 | 1 |
| Ron Dugans | 7 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 6 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Matt Schobel | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 21/34 | 224 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 22 | 60 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Troy Walters | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 9 | 12 | 145 | 1 |
| Qadry Ismail | 6 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Detron Smith | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Joe Dean Davenport | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Mike Roberg | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.44
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.56