Closing spread
CHI -1
Total
44
Model margin
+0.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play-0.129
- 43.5%Success rate40.0%
- +0.072EPA / dropback-0.089
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.197
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.5%
- 38.0%Third-down rate33.7%
- 55.1%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.67Points / drive1.35
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.2%
- -0.079EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 22/33 | 359 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 27 | 107 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Glenn | 8 | 10 | 154 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 4 | 9 | 120 | 1 |
| Tyrone Davis | 2 | 2 | 30 | 1 |
| Javon Walker | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Najeh Davenport | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 27/49 | 353 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Leon Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marty Booker | 12 | 19 | 141 | 1 |
| David Terrell | 3 | 3 | 77 | 0 |
| Dez White | 6 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| John Davis | 3 | 5 | 33 | 2 |
| Dustin Lyman | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Marcus Robinson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.24