2002 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

34·21

Bears

Chicago

QB Jim Miller

Memorial Stadium (Champaign) · outdoors · astroplay · 46°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CHI -1

Total

44

Model margin

+0.2est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBears
  • +0.010EPA / play-0.129
  • 43.5%Success rate40.0%
  • +0.072EPA / dropback-0.089
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.197
  • 8.6%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 38.0%Third-down rate33.7%
  • 55.1%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 1.67Points / drive1.35
  • 2.6%Turnover rate3.2%
  • -0.079EPA / play allowed-0.001

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CHI are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CHI
GBQ1 15:00511Punt0–0
CHIQ1 12:0834Punt6–0
GBQ1 11:08185Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 10:5639Punt7–0
GBQ1 8:461091Touchdown14–0
CHIQ1 3:32423Touchdown14–7
GBQ1 1:53874Touchdown21–7
CHIQ2 13:021238Turnover on downs21–7
GBQ2 7:3033Punt21–7
CHIQ2 6:0431Punt21–7
GBQ2 5:06324Turnover21–7
CHIQ2 3:4634Touchdown21–14
GBQ2 2:5057Punt21–14
CHIQ2 1:1336Punt21–14
GBQ2 0:38532Field goal24–14
CHIQ3 15:0000Missed field goal24–14
GBQ3 14:5142Missed field goal24–14
CHIQ3 12:43860Opp touchdown31–14
GBQ3 8:5300Opp touchdown31–14
CHIQ3 8:53842Turnover31–14
GBQ3 4:48456Missed field goal31–14
CHIQ3 2:3038Punt31–14
GBQ3 1:05648Field goal34–14
CHIQ4 13:211055Turnover on downs34–14
GBQ4 10:0435Punt34–14
CHIQ4 9:02957Touchdown34–21
GBQ4 6:50710Missed field goal34–21
CHIQ4 3:22252Turnover34–21
GBQ4 2:2639Punt34–21
CHIQ4 0:21121End of half34–21

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre22/3335930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahman Green271074.00
Donald Driver11313.00
Najeh Davenport133.00
Brett Favre111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry Glenn8101540
Donald Driver491201
Tyrone Davis22301
Javon Walker24240
Ahman Green44210
Bubba Franks1251
Najeh Davenport0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jim Miller27/4935333

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Anthony Thomas15453.00
Leon Johnson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marty Booker12191411
David Terrell33770
Dez White69700
John Davis35332
Dustin Lyman13210
Marcus Robinson1290
Anthony Thomas1720

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.7%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.24