Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.000EPA / play+0.017
- 43.6%Success rate45.0%
- +0.037EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.028
- 6.3%Explosive rate11.0%
- 43.1%Third-down rate37.0%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 1.69Points / drive1.85
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 17/31 | 240 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 9 | 14 | 1.6 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| David Patten | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Patten | 5 | 10 | 102 | 2 |
| Deion Branch | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 17/27 | 190 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 36 | 105 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Robert Edwards | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chambers | 6 | 9 | 62 | 1 |
| James McKnight | 1 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Randy McMichael | 3 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Dedric Ward | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Robert Edwards | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.3%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.40
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.96