2002 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

21·17

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Quincy Carter

Texas Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 84°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

NYG -1.5

Total

34.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.008EPA / play-0.190
  • 41.7%Success rate37.2%
  • +0.151EPA / dropback-0.193
  • -0.177EPA / rush-0.185
  • 9.6%Explosive rate9.2%
  • 38.8%Third-down rate23.8%
  • 44.5%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.46Points / drive0.79
  • 2.3%Turnover rate3.3%
  • -0.060EPA / play allowed-0.059

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–DAL
DALQ1 15:00717Turnover on downs0–0
NYGQ1 12:1139Punt0–0
DALQ1 9:58966Turnover on downs0–0
NYGQ1 6:361278Touchdown7–0
DALQ2 14:553-5Punt7–0
NYGQ2 13:473-5Turnover7–0
DALQ2 12:31736Missed field goal7–0
NYGQ2 8:233-9Punt7–0
DALQ2 7:02352Touchdown7–7
NYGQ2 5:40378Touchdown14–7
DALQ2 4:11845Field goal14–10
NYGQ2 0:241-1End of half14–10
NYGQ3 15:00634Punt14–10
DALQ3 10:59733Punt14–10
NYGQ3 7:51614Punt14–10
DALQ3 5:0837Punt14–10
NYGQ3 3:28522Turnover14–10
DALQ3 1:481450Touchdown14–17
NYGQ4 10:52880Touchdown21–17
DALQ4 6:51426Punt21–17
NYGQ4 4:4538Punt21–17
DALQ4 3:37613Punt21–17
NYGQ4 1:5358End of half21–17

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins18/2722831

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber17945.50
Ron Dayne5132.60
Delvin Joyce111.00
Kerry Collins5-4-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amani Toomer58981
Ike Hilliard35381
Dan Campbell34300
Tiki Barber45290
Marcellus Rivers11171
Jeremy Shockey11110
Sean Bennett1150
Ron Dixon0100
Charles Stackhouse0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Quincy Carter23/4226210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith13705.41
Quincy Carter5183.60
Troy Hambrick3103.30
Antonio Bryant133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joey Galloway8151090
James Whalen12330
Michael Wiley22310
Tony McGee45270
Reggie Swinton23220
Emmitt Smith22150
Antonio Bryant26141
Darnay Scott13100
Troy Hambrick1110
Ken-Yon Rambo0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.3%

Expected total

41.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.78
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+5.06
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.84