Closing spread
NYG -1.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.190
- 41.7%Success rate37.2%
- +0.151EPA / dropback-0.193
- -0.177EPA / rush-0.185
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.2%
- 38.8%Third-down rate23.8%
- 44.5%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.46Points / drive0.79
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.060EPA / play allowed-0.059
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 18/27 | 228 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 17 | 94 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Delvin Joyce | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 5 | -4 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 5 | 8 | 98 | 1 |
| Ike Hilliard | 3 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| Dan Campbell | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Marcellus Rivers | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Sean Bennett | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Stackhouse | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 23/42 | 262 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 13 | 70 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Quincy Carter | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Antonio Bryant | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Galloway | 8 | 15 | 109 | 0 |
| James Whalen | 1 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Reggie Swinton | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Antonio Bryant | 2 | 6 | 14 | 1 |
| Darnay Scott | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ken-Yon Rambo | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
41.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.78
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+5.06
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.84