Closing spread
DEN -6.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-25-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 13:40 | 2 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 12:57 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 9:49 | 10 | 51 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 5:10 | 14 | 86 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q2 12:20 | 15 | 109 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LAC | Q2 4:25 | 3 | 6 | Safety | 0–16 |
| DEN | Q2 2:22 | 11 | 60 | Field goal | 0–19 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 0–19 |
| LAC | Q3 13:29 | 7 | 44 | Field goal | 3–19 |
| DEN | Q3 10:40 | 9 | 55 | Missed field goal | 3–19 |
| LAC | Q3 5:43 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 3–19 |
| DEN | Q3 4:02 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 3–19 |
| LAC | Q4 14:31 | 3 | 20 | Turnover | 3–19 |
| DEN | Q4 13:15 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 3–19 |
| LAC | Q4 12:07 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 3–19 |
| DEN | Q4 7:44 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 3–19 |
| LAC | Q4 3:14 | 3 | 8 | Opp touchdown | 3–26 |
| DEN | Q4 2:54 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 3–26 |
| LAC | Q4 2:54 | 11 | 78 | Touchdown | 9–26 |
| DEN | Q4 1:31 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 9–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 26/35 | 316 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 20 | 102 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Scottie Montgomery | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed McCaffrey | 6 | 7 | 113 | 1 |
| Rod Smith | 6 | 8 | 83 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 2 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
| Ashley Lelie | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Scottie Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.01
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.