Closing spread
DEN -6.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 26/35 | 316 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 20 | 102 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Scottie Montgomery | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed McCaffrey | 6 | 7 | 113 | 1 |
| Rod Smith | 6 | 8 | 83 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 2 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
| Ashley Lelie | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Scottie Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.01
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.