Closing spread
SF -6
Total
41.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 65 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 11:07 | 6 | 62 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LA | Q1 8:28 | 9 | 17 | Punt | 3–3 |
| SF | Q1 4:58 | 10 | 56 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| LA | Q1 0:20 | 6 | 41 | Punt | 3–10 |
| SF | Q2 12:19 | 7 | 98 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| LA | Q2 7:42 | 6 | 27 | Turnover | 3–17 |
| SF | Q2 5:11 | 8 | 31 | Field goal | 3–20 |
| LA | Q2 1:07 | 4 | 5 | Opp touchdown | 3–27 |
| SF | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 3–27 |
| LA | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–27 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 3–27 |
| LA | Q3 12:48 | 15 | 54 | Field goal | 6–27 |
| SF | Q3 5:00 | 10 | 46 | Field goal | 6–30 |
| LA | Q4 14:52 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 6–30 |
| SF | Q4 13:40 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 6–37 |
| LA | Q4 9:53 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 6–37 |
| SF | Q4 6:20 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–37 |
| LA | Q4 4:48 | 13 | 81 | Touchdown | 13–37 |
| SF | Q4 0:29 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–37 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 18/26 | 214 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 13 | 116 | 8.9 | 1 |
| Kevan Barlow | 10 | 50 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 7 | 12 | 89 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 2 | 3 | 64 | 1 |
| Eric Johnson | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.13
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.