2002 · Week 6

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Chris Redman

20·22

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

RCA Dome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

IND -6.5

Total

42

Model margin

+4.0est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapColts
  • -0.058EPA / play+0.016
  • 41.6%Success rate44.3%
  • -0.044EPA / dropback+0.112
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.138
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.7%
  • 38.2%Third-down rate44.5%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 1.09Points / drive1.70
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.021EPA / play allowed-0.065

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 10–7 since 1999

Meetings average 39.8 points. IND are 12-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1BAL @ IND41–23BAL
2023 · W3IND @ BAL22–19IND
2021 · W5IND @ BAL25–31BAL
2020 · W9BAL @ IND24–10BAL
2017 · W16IND @ BAL16–23BAL
2014 · W5BAL @ IND13–20IND
2012 · playoffsIND @ BAL9–24BAL
2011 · W14IND @ BAL10–24BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–IND
INDQ1 15:00573Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 12:1735Field goal3–7
INDQ1 10:35412Punt3–7
BALQ1 8:09423Punt3–7
INDQ1 6:2436Punt3–7
BALQ1 4:5036Field goal6–7
INDQ1 2:3933Punt6–7
BALQ1 1:31429Punt6–7
INDQ1 0:0000Field goal6–7
INDQ2 15:001145Field goal6–10
BALQ2 7:5947Punt6–10
INDQ2 6:4535Punt6–10
BALQ2 5:33621Punt6–10
INDQ2 2:06419Punt6–10
BALQ2 1:01511Turnover6–10
INDQ2 0:2218Field goal6–13
BALQ2 0:0600End of half6–13
BALQ3 15:00522Punt6–13
INDQ3 12:28719Punt6–13
BALQ3 9:231157Touchdown13–13
INDQ3 4:26852Field goal13–16
BALQ4 14:551-9Turnover13–16
INDQ4 14:4134Field goal13–19
BALQ4 12:53762Touchdown20–19
INDQ4 9:04428Turnover20–19
BALQ4 7:10610Punt20–19
INDQ4 2:221143Field goal20–22
BALQ4 0:0400Turnover20–22

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Redman15/2816301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis21753.62
Todd Heap11414.00
Javin Hunter199.00
Chris Redman166.00
Chester Taylor210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Taylor47570
Jamal Lewis78510
Todd Heap27380
Ron Johnson12100
Javin Hunter1370

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning30/4028411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James17432.50
Peyton Manning2178.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Harrison12151500
Qadry Ismail58540
Reggie Wayne46440
Marcus Pollard56281
Edgerrin James4480

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

4.87%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.6%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.69
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.69
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.95