Closing spread
IND -6.5
Total
42
Model margin
+4.0est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play+0.016
- 41.6%Success rate44.3%
- -0.044EPA / dropback+0.112
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.138
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.7%
- 38.2%Third-down rate44.5%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 1.09Points / drive1.70
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.021EPA / play allowed-0.065
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. IND are 12-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Redman | 15/28 | 163 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 21 | 75 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Todd Heap | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Javin Hunter | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Chris Redman | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Taylor | 4 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 7 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 2 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Ron Johnson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Javin Hunter | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 30/40 | 284 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 17 | 43 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 12 | 15 | 150 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 5 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 5 | 6 | 28 | 1 |
| Edgerrin James | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.69
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.95