2002 · Week 6

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Rodney Peete

13·14

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Quincy Carter

Texas Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 56°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

DAL -2

Total

35

Model margin

+6.4est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.177EPA / play-0.190
  • 35.3%Success rate37.2%
  • -0.144EPA / dropback-0.193
  • -0.219EPA / rush-0.185
  • 9.1%Explosive rate9.2%
  • 29.3%Third-down rate23.8%
  • 49.5%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 0.82Points / drive0.79
  • 3.8%Turnover rate3.3%
  • -0.112EPA / play allowed-0.059

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 11–4 since 1999

Meetings average 40.3 points. DAL are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6DAL @ CAR27–30CAR
2024 · W15DAL @ CAR30–14DAL
2023 · W11DAL @ CAR33–10DAL
2021 · W4CAR @ DAL28–36DAL
2018 · W1DAL @ CAR8–16CAR
2015 · W12CAR @ DAL33–14CAR
2012 · W7DAL @ CAR19–14DAL
2009 · W3CAR @ DAL7–21DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–DAL
DALQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
CARQ1 13:1333Punt0–0
DALQ1 12:20732Punt0–0
CARQ1 9:12412Punt0–0
DALQ1 6:34973Turnover0–0
CARQ1 1:17332Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 0:0000Punt7–0
DALQ2 15:0038Punt7–0
CARQ2 13:19949Missed field goal7–0
DALQ2 8:00610Punt7–0
CARQ2 6:1635Punt7–0
DALQ2 4:404-6Turnover7–0
CARQ2 2:3332Punt7–0
DALQ2 1:473-10Punt7–0
CARQ2 1:17319End of half7–0
CARQ3 15:001252Punt7–0
DALQ3 7:32516Punt7–0
CARQ3 5:32926Field goal10–0
DALQ3 1:35740Turnover on downs10–0
CARQ4 13:1538Punt10–0
DALQ4 10:444-2Punt10–0
CARQ4 8:39731Field goal13–0
DALQ4 4:48376Touchdown13–7
CARQ4 3:55414Punt13–7
DALQ4 2:481067Touchdown13–14
CARQ4 0:56355End of half13–14

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Weinke7/1211400
Rodney Peete9/158410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Smith25813.20
Rodney Peete294.50
Nick Goings294.50
Dee Brown294.50
Chris Weinke2-5-2.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Muhsin Muhammad68820
Karl Hankton23380
Steve Smith48310
Nick Goings1280
Kris Mangum1170
Lamar Smith1270

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Quincy Carter15/3222521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith13594.50
Quincy Carter4276.80
Reggie Swinton12323.00
Troy Hambrick3155.00
Michael Wiley3134.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joey Galloway381041
Antonio Bryant37451
Darnay Scott35260
Ken-Yon Rambo22210
Tony McGee12120
Emmitt Smith1170
Michael Wiley1310
Troy Hambrick0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +23.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.9%

Expected total

40.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.22
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+5.06
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.40