Closing spread
DAL -2
Total
35
Model margin
+6.4est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.177EPA / play-0.190
- 35.3%Success rate37.2%
- -0.144EPA / dropback-0.193
- -0.219EPA / rush-0.185
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.2%
- 29.3%Third-down rate23.8%
- 49.5%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 0.82Points / drive0.79
- 3.8%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.112EPA / play allowed-0.059
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.3 points. DAL are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Weinke | 7/12 | 114 | 0 | 0 |
| Rodney Peete | 9/15 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 25 | 81 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Rodney Peete | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Dee Brown | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Chris Weinke | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 6 | 8 | 82 | 0 |
| Karl Hankton | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 15/32 | 225 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 13 | 59 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Reggie Swinton | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Galloway | 3 | 8 | 104 | 1 |
| Antonio Bryant | 3 | 7 | 45 | 1 |
| Darnay Scott | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Ken-Yon Rambo | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.9%
Expected total
40.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.22
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+5.06
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.40