Closing spread
MIN -4.5
Total
49
Model margin
+5.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play+0.060
- 34.3%Success rate45.1%
- -0.156EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.134EPA / rush+0.071
- 8.1%Explosive rate9.3%
- 29.8%Third-down rate43.6%
- 49.8%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
- 0.96Points / drive1.93
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.4%
- +0.065EPA / play allowed+0.082
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 25/41 | 309 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Az-Zahir Hakim | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikhael Ricks | 3 | 3 | 79 | 1 |
| Az-Zahir Hakim | 5 | 10 | 70 | 1 |
| Aveion Cason | 2 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 2 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Scotty Anderson | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| John Owens | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 27/36 | 295 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 16 | 68 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Moe Williams | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 9 | 12 | 83 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 4 | 4 | 70 | 1 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 5 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 4 | 4 | 34 | 1 |
| Derrick Alexander | 2 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| D'Wayne Bates | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.1%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.73
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.29