2002 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Joey Harrington

24·31

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Daunte Culpepper

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

MIN -4.5

Total

49

Model margin

+5.3est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapVikings
  • -0.148EPA / play+0.060
  • 34.3%Success rate45.1%
  • -0.156EPA / dropback+0.054
  • -0.134EPA / rush+0.071
  • 8.1%Explosive rate9.3%
  • 29.8%Third-down rate43.6%
  • 49.8%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
  • 0.96Points / drive1.93
  • 2.9%Turnover rate3.4%
  • +0.065EPA / play allowed+0.082

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. MIN are 25-26-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–MIN
MINQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
DETQ1 12:54480Touchdown7–0
MINQ1 10:5021Opp touchdown14–0
DETQ1 9:3900Opp touchdown14–0
MINQ1 9:39635Field goal14–3
DETQ1 5:54619Punt14–3
MINQ1 2:551079Touchdown14–10
DETQ2 12:3449Turnover on downs14–10
MINQ2 10:2237Punt14–10
DETQ2 9:523-2Punt14–10
MINQ2 8:15726Turnover on downs14–10
DETQ2 4:21790Touchdown21–10
MINQ2 1:1149Punt21–10
DETQ2 0:3011End of half21–10
DETQ3 15:0030Punt21–10
MINQ3 13:54764Touchdown21–17
DETQ3 9:51728Field goal24–17
MINQ3 6:07423Punt24–17
DETQ3 3:43738Punt24–17
MINQ3 0:57615Punt24–17
DETQ4 13:53747Punt24–17
MINQ4 8:49790Touchdown24–24
DETQ4 5:253-2Punt24–24
MINQ4 4:12548Touchdown24–31
DETQ4 2:121046Turnover24–31
MINQ4 0:171-1End of half24–31

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joey Harrington25/4130921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart10424.20
Az-Zahir Hakim11010.00
Aveion Cason221.00
Joey Harrington100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mikhael Ricks33791
Az-Zahir Hakim510701
Aveion Cason25340
Bill Schroeder27290
Scotty Anderson24200
Larry Foster23150
James Stewart22110
John Owens1150

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daunte Culpepper27/3629521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Bennett16684.30
Daunte Culpepper7395.61
Moe Williams242.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randy Moss912830
Michael Bennett44701
Byron Chamberlain55540
Jimmy Kleinsasser44341
Derrick Alexander25310
Moe Williams23180
D'Wayne Bates1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.1%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.73
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.29