Closing spread
JAX -1.5
Total
44
Model margin
+8.9est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.269EPA / play+0.043
- 40.3%Success rate44.9%
- -0.158EPA / dropback+0.151
- -0.424EPA / rush-0.095
- 8.6%Explosive rate6.9%
- 33.9%Third-down rate43.7%
- 29.3%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 0.22Points / drive1.58
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.014EPA / play allowed-0.038
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 37 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 10:23 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 4:30 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TEN | Q1 2:29 | 11 | 57 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| JAX | Q2 12:49 | 2 | -1 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| TEN | Q2 11:57 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| JAX | Q2 10:36 | 6 | 10 | Punt | 0–13 |
| TEN | Q2 7:19 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| JAX | Q2 7:12 | 6 | 20 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| TEN | Q2 3:53 | 13 | 57 | Field goal | 7–16 |
| JAX | Q2 0:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–16 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 48 | Missed field goal | 7–16 |
| JAX | Q3 8:21 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–16 |
| TEN | Q3 6:48 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 7–16 |
| JAX | Q3 2:48 | 3 | 82 | Touchdown | 14–16 |
| TEN | Q3 0:53 | 14 | 68 | Touchdown | 14–23 |
| JAX | Q4 8:07 | 10 | 36 | Turnover | 14–23 |
| TEN | Q4 3:37 | 6 | 22 | End of half | 14–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 4/7 | 53 | 0 | 2 |
| Mark Brunell | 3/6 | 31 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 7 | 71 | 10.1 | 2 |
| Fred Taylor | 19 | 59 | 3.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 4 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 26/36 | 226 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 31 | 113 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bennett | 6 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Erron Kinney | 4 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 3 | 3 | 27 | 1 |
| Frank Wycheck | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Justin McCareins | 2 | 8 | 21 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| John Simon | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.70%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
72.0%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.94