Closing spread
SD -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
SD perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. SD are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 17/29 | 236 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 23 | 63 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Trent Green | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 7 | 8 | 96 | 0 |
| Marc Boerigter | 4 | 4 | 85 | 2 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 2 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| Johnnie Morton | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Billy Baber | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.06
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.50
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.