2002 · Week 6
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
NO -1.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play-0.056
- 39.0%Success rate41.7%
- +0.038EPA / dropback-0.037
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.083
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.5%
- 40.9%Third-down rate39.7%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.94Points / drive1.22
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.005EPA / play allowed-0.082
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 55 points. WAS are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 12/23 | 205 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 29 | 121 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Curtis Keaton | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 5 | 7 | 75 | 1 |
| Michael L. Lewis | 2 | 2 | 70 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 1 | 2 | 31 | 1 |
| Jerome Pathon | 1 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Boo Williams | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Deuce McAllister | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ramsey | 21/43 | 320 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Ladell Betts | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Watson | 4 | 5 | 74 | 1 |
| Derrius Thompson | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Rod Gardner | 4 | 12 | 40 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 1 | 1 | 40 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 2 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Chris Doering | 2 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 2 | 8 | 23 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.16
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.89