Closing spread
PIT -6.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.063
- 43.3%Success rate43.4%
- +0.070EPA / dropback-0.085
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.027
- 9.7%Explosive rate6.3%
- 42.2%Third-down rate39.3%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
- 1.71Points / drive1.04
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.086EPA / play allowed+0.080
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. CIN are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 16/25 | 216 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 21 | 109 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Amos Zereoue | 10 | 51 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaxico Burress | 8 | 11 | 149 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 4 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 23/35 | 222 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 17 | 57 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Peter Warrick | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson | 7 | 8 | 71 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Matt Schobel | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 2 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Danny Farmer | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.7%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.71
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.15