Closing spread
SF -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.098EPA / play+0.035
- 45.2%Success rate44.0%
- +0.159EPA / dropback+0.097
- +0.004EPA / rush-0.070
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.4%
- 52.5%Third-down rate43.0%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
- 1.83Points / drive1.60
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.046EPA / play allowed+0.049
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 29-22-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 39 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q1 10:06 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 9:07 | 7 | 38 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| SEA | Q1 6:50 | 10 | 69 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| SF | Q1 1:45 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 10–7 |
| SEA | Q1 0:00 | 0 | 0 | Missed field goal | 10–7 |
| SEA | Q2 15:00 | 13 | 50 | Missed field goal | 10–7 |
| SF | Q2 8:19 | 4 | 8 | Opp touchdown | 10–14 |
| SEA | Q2 5:41 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 10–14 |
| SF | Q2 5:41 | 8 | 64 | Field goal | 13–14 |
| SEA | Q2 2:09 | 9 | 55 | Missed field goal | 13–14 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 13–14 |
| SF | Q3 11:38 | 12 | 84 | Touchdown | 20–14 |
| SEA | Q3 5:29 | 8 | 76 | Touchdown | 20–21 |
| SF | Q3 1:11 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 20–21 |
| SEA | Q3 0:22 | 9 | 37 | Turnover | 20–21 |
| SF | Q4 10:11 | 7 | 63 | Touchdown | 28–21 |
| SEA | Q4 7:46 | 7 | 20 | Punt | 28–21 |
| SF | Q4 5:02 | 8 | 50 | End of half | 28–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 16/29 | 202 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 12 | 68 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 7 | 48 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 6 | 9 | 84 | 2 |
| Tai Streets | 4 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Eric Johnson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 21/31 | 212 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 25 | 96 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Trent Dilfer | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Engram | 6 | 7 | 85 | 0 |
| Darrell Jackson | 5 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.3%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.85
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-0.64