Closing spread
SF -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.098EPA / play+0.035
- 45.2%Success rate44.0%
- +0.159EPA / dropback+0.097
- +0.004EPA / rush-0.070
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.4%
- 52.5%Third-down rate43.0%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
- 1.83Points / drive1.60
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.046EPA / play allowed+0.049
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SEA are 29-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 16/29 | 202 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 12 | 68 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 7 | 48 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 6 | 9 | 84 | 2 |
| Tai Streets | 4 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Eric Johnson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 21/31 | 212 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 25 | 96 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Trent Dilfer | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Engram | 6 | 7 | 85 | 0 |
| Darrell Jackson | 5 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.3%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.85
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-0.64