Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
DET perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play-0.148
- 40.0%Success rate34.3%
- -0.089EPA / dropback-0.156
- -0.197EPA / rush-0.134
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.1%
- 33.7%Third-down rate29.8%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
- 1.35Points / drive0.96
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed+0.065
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 16/25 | 163 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 26 | 92 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Leon Johnson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Dez White | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez White | 3 | 6 | 70 | 0 |
| Fred Baxter | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | 4 | 14 | 1 |
| Dustin Lyman | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| John Davis | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Marcus Robinson | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 16/29 | 199 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 32 | 172 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Aveion Cason | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aveion Cason | 3 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Scotty Anderson | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Germane Crowell | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| John Owens | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Az-Zahir Hakim | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Matt Murphy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
6.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.64
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin+2.95