2002 · Week 7 · Division

Final / OT

Bears

Chicago

QB Chris Chandler

20·23

Lions

Detroit

QB Joey Harrington

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

CHI -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

DET perspective

Push chance

6.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapLions
  • -0.129EPA / play-0.148
  • 40.0%Success rate34.3%
  • -0.089EPA / dropback-0.156
  • -0.197EPA / rush-0.134
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.1%
  • 33.7%Third-down rate29.8%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
  • 1.35Points / drive0.96
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.001EPA / play allowed+0.065

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–DET
DETQ1 15:00741Missed field goal0–0
CHIQ1 11:04820Punt0–0
DETQ1 6:54415Punt0–0
CHIQ1 4:1463Punt0–0
DETQ1 0:2033Punt0–0
CHIQ2 14:11936Field goal3–0
DETQ2 9:13653Punt3–0
CHIQ2 5:5123Turnover3–6
DETQ2 5:0216Touchdown3–7
CHIQ2 4:592-9Turnover3–7
DETQ2 4:04716Touchdown3–14
CHIQ2 1:11674Touchdown10–14
DETQ2 0:0500End of half10–14
CHIQ3 15:00960Touchdown17–14
DETQ3 10:1124Turnover17–14
CHIQ3 8:4231Field goal20–14
DETQ3 8:291581Field goal20–17
CHIQ3 0:34110Turnover20–17
DETQ3 0:00827Punt20–17
CHIQ4 11:49514Punt20–17
DETQ4 8:3639Punt20–17
CHIQ4 7:05913Punt20–17
DETQ4 2:211177Field goal20–20
CHIQ4 0:0200End of half20–20
DETOT730Field goal20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Chandler16/2516311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Anthony Thomas26923.51
Leon Johnson263.00
Stanley Pritchett122.00
Chris Chandler1-1-1.00
Dez White1-10-10.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez White36700
Fred Baxter33400
Marty Booker14141
Dustin Lyman22110
John Davis11100
Anthony Thomas3450
Marcus Robinson1340

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joey Harrington16/2919900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart321725.42
Aveion Cason393.00
Joey Harrington273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Aveion Cason35570
Scotty Anderson35340
James Stewart22280
Germane Crowell23210
Larry Foster25210
John Owens24190
Az-Zahir Hakim12130
Matt Murphy0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

6.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.77
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.64
  • Rest differential-0.48
  • Expected margin+2.95