2002 · Week 7 · Division

Final / OT

Broncos

Denver

QB Brian Griese

37·34

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Trent Green

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

DEN -3

Total

50.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

KC perspective

Push chance

6.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapChiefs
  • +0.065EPA / play+0.161
  • 49.4%Success rate47.5%
  • +0.067EPA / dropback+0.224
  • +0.062EPA / rush+0.083
  • 8.4%Explosive rate11.6%
  • 37.9%Third-down rate41.1%
  • 58.0%Red-zone TD rate62.8%
  • 1.76Points / drive2.29
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.4%
  • +0.007EPA / play allowed+0.098

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–25 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. KC are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8KC @ DEN24–28DEN
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–KC
KCQ1 15:00966Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 9:241166Field goal3–7
KCQ1 2:49725Punt3–7
DENQ2 14:2037Punt3–7
KCQ2 13:231032Field goal3–10
DENQ2 9:31314Turnover3–10
KCQ2 8:07411Punt3–10
DENQ2 6:07513Punt3–10
KCQ2 4:37423Field goal3–13
DENQ2 3:061162Field goal6–13
KCQ2 0:0715End of half6–13
DENQ3 15:0030Punt6–13
KCQ3 14:273-3Punt6–13
DENQ3 12:28287Touchdown13–13
KCQ3 11:38649Touchdown13–20
DENQ3 8:28963Touchdown20–20
KCQ3 4:37955Touchdown20–27
DENQ3 0:37618Punt20–27
KCQ4 12:5125Touchdown20–34
DENQ4 12:42470Touchdown27–34
KCQ4 10:513-7Punt27–34
DENQ4 9:12626Turnover on downs27–34
KCQ4 6:32629Missed field goal27–34
DENQ4 3:471269Touchdown34–34
KCQ4 0:2129End of half34–34
DENOT39Punt34–34
KCOT36Punt34–34
DENOT33Field goal37–34

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Griese30/5037620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis15704.71
Mike Anderson9343.81
Ashley Lelie12424.00
Brian Griese2136.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shannon Sharpe12142142
Rod Smith714920
Ashley Lelie36330
Mike Anderson45190
Clinton Portis36140
Ed McCaffrey1340

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Green20/3317200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Priest Holmes241134.73
Trent Green2189.00
Johnnie Morton166.00
Derrick Blaylock144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Gonzalez55580
Priest Holmes79380
Eddie Kennison49370
Johnnie Morton38250
Dante Hall11140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

6.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

48.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.10