Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
50.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.065EPA / play+0.161
- 49.4%Success rate47.5%
- +0.067EPA / dropback+0.224
- +0.062EPA / rush+0.083
- 8.4%Explosive rate11.6%
- 37.9%Third-down rate41.1%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate62.8%
- 1.76Points / drive2.29
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.4%
- +0.007EPA / play allowed+0.098
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 30/50 | 376 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 15 | 70 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Mike Anderson | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Ashley Lelie | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Sharpe | 12 | 14 | 214 | 2 |
| Rod Smith | 7 | 14 | 92 | 0 |
| Ashley Lelie | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 4 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 3 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 20/33 | 172 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 24 | 113 | 4.7 | 3 |
| Trent Green | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 5 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 7 | 9 | 38 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 4 | 9 | 37 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 3 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
6.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
48.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.10