2002 · Week 7

Final

Texans

Houston

QB David Carr

17·34

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CLE -8.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

+5.3est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapBrowns
  • -0.226EPA / play+0.007
  • 33.0%Success rate42.2%
  • -0.172EPA / dropback+0.050
  • -0.307EPA / rush-0.064
  • 5.8%Explosive rate7.9%
  • 25.7%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 39.5%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 0.66Points / drive1.59
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.025

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 39.9 points. CLE are 5-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · playoffsCLE @ HOU14–45HOU
2023 · W16CLE @ HOU36–22CLE
2022 · W13CLE @ HOU27–14CLE
2021 · W2HOU @ CLE21–31CLE
2020 · W10HOU @ CLE7–10CLE
2018 · W13CLE @ HOU13–29HOU
2017 · W6CLE @ HOU17–33HOU
2014 · W11HOU @ CLE23–7HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–CLE
CLEQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
HOUQ1 13:533-4Punt0–0
CLEQ1 11:51737Punt0–0
HOUQ1 7:18520Punt0–0
CLEQ1 4:49614Punt0–0
CLEQ1 1:41513Touchdown0–7
HOUQ2 14:07462Touchdown7–7
CLEQ2 11:4938Punt7–7
HOUQ2 9:451150Missed field goal7–7
CLEQ2 3:19413Punt7–7
HOUQ2 1:45633Punt7–7
CLEQ2 0:4413End of half7–7
HOUQ3 15:0032Punt7–7
CLEQ3 13:30731Field goal7–10
HOUQ3 10:26570Touchdown14–16
CLEQ3 8:4400Touchdown14–17
HOUQ3 8:31735Field goal17–17
CLEQ3 5:44741Touchdown17–24
HOUQ3 2:15711Punt17–24
CLEQ4 13:38439Punt17–24
HOUQ4 11:4630Punt17–24
CLEQ4 9:43916Field goal17–27
HOUQ4 5:2034Punt17–27
CLEQ4 3:5337Punt17–27
HOUQ4 2:473-3Turnover17–27
CLEQ4 2:2524Touchdown17–34
HOUQ4 1:56874End of half17–34

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Carr22/3626710
Jabar Gaffney1/13910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Allen56112.20
Jonathan Wells13231.80
David Carr331.00
Jermaine Lewis122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Billy Miller68780
Corey Bradford28762
Jabar Gaffney46470
James Allen45380
Avion Black44310
JaJuan Dawson12250
Jonathan Wells23110

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch21/3114810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamel White12655.41
William Green12242.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quincy Morgan711811
Jamel White57340
Kevin Johnson44220
Dennis Northcutt3360
Andre Davis1430
James Jackson1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

1.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.2%

Expected total

41.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.76
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.32