Closing spread
CLE -8.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.226EPA / play+0.007
- 33.0%Success rate42.2%
- -0.172EPA / dropback+0.050
- -0.307EPA / rush-0.064
- 5.8%Explosive rate7.9%
- 25.7%Third-down rate40.7%
- 39.5%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 0.66Points / drive1.59
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.025
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.9 points. CLE are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 22/36 | 267 | 1 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 1/1 | 39 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 5 | 61 | 12.2 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 13 | 23 | 1.8 | 0 |
| David Carr | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Miller | 6 | 8 | 78 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 2 | 8 | 76 | 2 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| James Allen | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Avion Black | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| JaJuan Dawson | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 21/31 | 148 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamel White | 12 | 65 | 5.4 | 1 |
| William Green | 12 | 24 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Morgan | 7 | 11 | 81 | 1 |
| Jamel White | 5 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.2%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.32