Closing spread
PIT -4.5
Total
46
Model margin
+3.8est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.016EPA / play+0.008
- 44.3%Success rate43.3%
- +0.112EPA / dropback+0.070
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.073
- 7.7%Explosive rate9.7%
- 44.5%Third-down rate42.2%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 1.70Points / drive1.71
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.065EPA / play allowed-0.086
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 12–4 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. PIT are 10-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 13:24 | 6 | 41 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 10:19 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q1 6:40 | 12 | 65 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| IND | Q1 0:45 | 9 | 32 | Missed field goal | 0–14 |
| PIT | Q2 12:01 | 8 | 62 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| IND | Q2 7:35 | 10 | 52 | Field goal | 3–21 |
| PIT | Q2 1:50 | 4 | 41 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| IND | Q2 0:36 | 6 | 14 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–21 |
| IND | Q3 13:18 | 4 | 52 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| PIT | Q3 11:38 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 10–21 |
| IND | Q3 10:15 | 7 | 47 | Turnover | 10–21 |
| PIT | Q3 6:41 | 3 | 19 | Touchdown | 10–28 |
| IND | Q3 5:48 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 10–28 |
| PIT | Q3 2:01 | 11 | 93 | Turnover on downs | 10–28 |
| IND | Q4 11:37 | 12 | 63 | Turnover | 10–28 |
| PIT | Q4 6:41 | 8 | 39 | Missed field goal | 10–28 |
| IND | Q4 1:36 | 6 | 29 | End of half | 10–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 32/48 | 304 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 20 | 62 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 11 | 12 | 83 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison | 8 | 12 | 76 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 4 | 7 | 64 | 1 |
| Reggie Wayne | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 3 | 9 | 20 | 0 |
| Mike Roberg | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Troy Walters | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 15/23 | 188 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amos Zereoue | 15 | 87 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaxico Burress | 6 | 10 | 79 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 5 | 8 | 76 | 2 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.83