Closing spread
JAX -1.5
Total
38
Model margin
+5.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.269EPA / play-0.058
- 40.3%Success rate41.6%
- -0.158EPA / dropback-0.044
- -0.424EPA / rush-0.078
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.3%
- 33.9%Third-down rate38.2%
- 29.3%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 0.22Points / drive1.09
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.014EPA / play allowed-0.021
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. BAL are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 24/46 | 231 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 25 | 151 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Mark Brunell | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 7 | 11 | 63 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 8 | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 3 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 4 | 11 | 37 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 1 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Redman | 14/28 | 152 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 28 | 119 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Chris Redman | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Taylor | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 4 | 10 | 39 | 2 |
| Ron Johnson | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| John Jones | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Terry Jones | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.5%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.58
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.69
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.45