2002 · Week 7

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

10·17

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Chris Redman

Ravens Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

JAX -1.5

Total

38

Model margin

+5.5est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapRavens
  • -0.269EPA / play-0.058
  • 40.3%Success rate41.6%
  • -0.158EPA / dropback-0.044
  • -0.424EPA / rush-0.078
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.3%
  • 33.9%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 29.3%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 0.22Points / drive1.09
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.9%
  • +0.014EPA / play allowed-0.021

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 11–7 since 1999

Meetings average 38.7 points. BAL are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15BAL @ JAX23–7BAL
2022 · W12BAL @ JAX27–28JAX
2020 · W15JAX @ BAL14–40BAL
2017 · W3BAL @ JAX7–44JAX
2016 · W3BAL @ JAX19–17BAL
2015 · W10JAX @ BAL22–20JAX
2014 · W15JAX @ BAL12–20BAL
2011 · W7BAL @ JAX7–12JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–BAL
BALQ1 15:00416Punt0–0
JAXQ1 13:20526Punt0–0
BALQ1 10:21416Punt0–0
JAXQ1 7:5831Punt0–0
BALQ1 7:061141Missed field goal0–0
JAXQ1 2:08311Turnover0–0
BALQ1 0:11519Touchdown0–7
JAXQ2 13:03960Turnover on downs0–7
BALQ2 8:4028Turnover0–7
JAXQ2 7:57425Touchdown7–7
BALQ2 5:45622Turnover7–7
JAXQ2 3:09518Missed field goal7–7
BALQ2 1:0335Punt7–7
JAXQ2 0:03111End of half7–7
JAXQ3 15:0035Punt7–7
BALQ3 13:2437Punt7–7
JAXQ3 12:2425Turnover7–7
BALQ3 11:3565Field goal7–10
JAXQ3 9:161048Punt7–10
BALQ3 4:02780Touchdown7–17
JAXQ3 0:41840Turnover on downs7–17
BALQ4 12:32936Punt7–17
JAXQ4 7:061689Field goal10–17
BALQ4 2:3036Punt10–17
JAXQ4 2:05958Turnover10–17

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell24/4623103

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor251516.01
Mark Brunell2189.00
Stacey Mack341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Smith711630
Fred Taylor89460
Bobby Shaw38410
Kyle Brady411370
Pat Johnson15330
Pete Mitchell11110

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Redman14/2815220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis281194.30
Todd Heap177.00
Chris Redman111.00
Chester Taylor111.00
Brandon Stokley1-10-10.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Taylor46420
Todd Heap410392
Ron Johnson22370
Jamal Lewis12110
Brandon Stokley14100
John Jones1390
Terry Jones1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.5%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.58
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.69
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.45