Closing spread
OAK -7
Total
47
Model margin
+2.6est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. OAK are 23-31-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 67 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 11:25 | 9 | 30 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 5:01 | 11 | 63 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q2 14:46 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q2 13:01 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q2 11:34 | 8 | 58 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q2 7:17 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q2 3:54 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q2 1:51 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q2 0:50 | 1 | 5 | End of half | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 79 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| LV | Q3 9:12 | 8 | 64 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q3 5:16 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LV | Q3 3:18 | 8 | 60 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| LAC | Q4 14:54 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 14–14 |
| LV | Q4 13:46 | 4 | 18 | Missed field goal | 14–14 |
| LAC | Q4 11:44 | 10 | 42 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| LV | Q4 7:18 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 21–14 |
| LAC | Q4 6:05 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 21–14 |
| LV | Q4 3:05 | 9 | 82 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| LAC | Q4 1:21 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 21–21 |
| LV | Q4 0:47 | 2 | -1 | End of half | 21–21 |
| LAC | OT | 9 | 65 | Touchdown | 27–21 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.74%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.56
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.