Closing spread
STL -6.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+5.4est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. STL are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 13:21 | 5 | 22 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:41 | 10 | 62 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 6:00 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 4:44 | 4 | 45 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 2:40 | 8 | 26 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q2 14:06 | 13 | 77 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| SEA | Q2 7:11 | 1 | 79 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| LA | Q2 6:51 | 5 | 49 | Punt | 7–10 |
| SEA | Q2 3:56 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LA | Q2 1:41 | 9 | 57 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| SEA | Q2 0:29 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 14–13 |
| LA | Q2 0:16 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–13 |
| SEA | Q2 0:08 | 2 | 15 | End of half | 14–13 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 14–13 |
| LA | Q3 13:02 | 13 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–20 |
| SEA | Q3 5:08 | 3 | -7 | Turnover | 14–20 |
| LA | Q3 4:42 | 3 | -9 | Field goal | 14–23 |
| SEA | Q3 3:23 | 5 | 83 | Turnover | 14–23 |
| LA | Q3 1:20 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–30 |
| SEA | Q4 12:12 | 3 | -2 | Turnover | 14–30 |
| LA | Q4 10:44 | 8 | 39 | Touchdown | 14–37 |
| SEA | Q4 6:05 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 20–37 |
| LA | Q4 3:41 | 1 | 1 | Opp touchdown | 20–37 |
| SEA | Q4 3:28 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 20–37 |
| LA | Q4 3:28 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 20–37 |
| SEA | Q4 2:13 | 6 | 27 | Turnover on downs | 20–37 |
| LA | Q4 1:25 | 3 | -5 | End of half | 20–37 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 8/25 | 232 | 1 | 2 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2/5 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 12 | 30 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koren Robinson | 3 | 7 | 166 | 1 |
| James Williams | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 2 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 1 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Darrell Jackson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
4.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.4%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.85
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.40
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.