Closing spread
STL -6.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+5.4est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. STL are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 8/25 | 232 | 1 | 2 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2/5 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 12 | 30 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koren Robinson | 3 | 7 | 166 | 1 |
| James Williams | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 2 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 1 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Darrell Jackson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
4.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.4%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.85
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.40
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.