Closing spread
NO -1.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.098EPA / play-0.006
- 45.2%Success rate39.0%
- +0.159EPA / dropback+0.038
- +0.004EPA / rush-0.078
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.2%
- 52.5%Third-down rate40.9%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 1.83Points / drive1.94
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.7%
- +0.046EPA / play allowed-0.005
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 12–9 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. NO are 11-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 9:29 | 11 | 58 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| SF | Q1 3:09 | 8 | 83 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| NO | Q2 13:32 | 2 | 53 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| SF | Q2 12:38 | 10 | 63 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| NO | Q2 7:10 | 6 | 19 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| SF | Q2 4:24 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 17–10 |
| NO | Q2 1:50 | 8 | 51 | Missed field goal | 17–10 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 63 | Field goal | 17–13 |
| SF | Q3 7:05 | 11 | 66 | Touchdown | 24–13 |
| NO | Q3 1:10 | 11 | 51 | Touchdown | 24–19 |
| SF | Q4 12:35 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 24–19 |
| NO | Q4 12:01 | 2 | 22 | Touchdown | 24–25 |
| SF | Q4 11:14 | 5 | 38 | Field goal | 27–25 |
| NO | Q4 8:39 | 9 | 68 | Field goal | 27–28 |
| SF | Q4 3:12 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 27–28 |
| NO | Q4 2:23 | 4 | 37 | Touchdown | 27–35 |
| SF | Q4 1:56 | 12 | 71 | End of half | 27–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 23/39 | 275 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 14 | 87 | 6.2 | 2 |
| Kevan Barlow | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tai Streets | 6 | 8 | 80 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 4 | 11 | 61 | 1 |
| Garrison Hearst | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 3 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Eric Johnson | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| James Jordan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 23/35 | 254 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 21 | 139 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Michael L. Lewis | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Keaton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 8 | 11 | 109 | 2 |
| Jerome Pathon | 4 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 5 | 7 | 35 | 1 |
| Michael L. Lewis | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Boo Williams | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.61