2002 · Week 7
Final
Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 15mph
Closing spread
GB -7
Total
48
Model margin
+2.0est.
GB perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.056EPA / play+0.010
- 41.7%Success rate43.5%
- -0.037EPA / dropback+0.072
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.081
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.6%
- 39.7%Third-down rate38.0%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
- 1.22Points / drive1.67
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.082EPA / play allowed-0.079
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. GB are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ramsey | 10/24 | 135 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 24 | 91 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Derrius Thompson | 4 | 48 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrius Thompson | 5 | 5 | 89 | 0 |
| Rod Gardner | 3 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Doering | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zeron Flemister | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 11/14 | 89 | 0 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 9/15 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 24 | 88 | 3.7 | 3 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Driver | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Javon Walker | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| David Martin | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Robert Ferguson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
4.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.16
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.99