2002 · Week 7

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Patrick Ramsey

9·30

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

GB -7

Total

48

Model margin

+2.0est.

GB perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapPackers
  • -0.056EPA / play+0.010
  • 41.7%Success rate43.5%
  • -0.037EPA / dropback+0.072
  • -0.083EPA / rush-0.081
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 39.7%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
  • 1.22Points / drive1.67
  • 3.3%Turnover rate2.6%
  • -0.082EPA / play allowed-0.079

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. GB are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2WAS @ GB18–27GB
2022 · W7GB @ WAS21–23WAS
2021 · W7WAS @ GB10–24GB
2019 · W14WAS @ GB15–20GB
2018 · W3GB @ WAS17–31WAS
2016 · W11GB @ WAS24–42WAS
2015 · playoffsGB @ WAS35–18GB
2013 · W2WAS @ GB20–38GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–GB
WASQ1 15:001259Field goal3–0
GBQ1 8:50863Touchdown3–7
WASQ1 4:21826Turnover3–7
GBQ1 0:28729Turnover on downs3–7
WASQ2 13:201315Field goal6–7
GBQ2 7:57732Touchdown6–14
WASQ2 5:0749Turnover on downs6–14
GBQ2 3:26719Field goal6–17
WASQ2 1:23513End of half6–17
GBQ3 15:00313Turnover6–17
WASQ3 13:26441Missed field goal6–17
GBQ3 12:123-3Punt6–17
WASQ3 10:23958Field goal9–17
GBQ3 5:55619Punt9–17
WASQ3 3:073-1Turnover9–17
GBQ3 2:0230Punt9–17
WASQ3 1:03629Turnover9–17
GBQ4 12:52621Field goal9–20
WASQ4 9:212-11Turnover9–20
GBQ4 9:02323Touchdown9–27
WASQ4 7:4842Punt9–27
GBQ4 5:58827Field goal9–30
WASQ4 0:221-2End of half9–30

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Ramsey10/2413500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis24913.80
Derrius Thompson44812.00
Jacquez Green188.00
Kenny Watson210.50
Patrick Ramsey200.00
Ladell Betts1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrius Thompson55890
Rod Gardner38350
Kevin Lockett1290
Chris Doering1520
Walter Rasby0100
Zeron Flemister0100
Ladell Betts0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre11/148900
Doug Pederson9/157800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahman Green24883.73
Brett Favre100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donald Driver46440
Javon Walker12200
Bubba Franks33190
David Martin33170
Terry Glenn15150
Ahman Green34120
Robert Ferguson1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

4.68%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.4%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.16
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.99