Closing spread
SF -8.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+6.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.092EPA / play+0.098
- 38.4%Success rate45.2%
- -0.052EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.160EPA / rush+0.004
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.5%
- 43.6%Third-down rate52.5%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.06Points / drive1.83
- 3.4%Turnover rate1.5%
- +0.083EPA / play allowed+0.046
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 29–22 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. SF are 26-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 1 | -3 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 14:48 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q1 13:12 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–3 |
| SF | Q1 11:33 | 9 | 73 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| ARI | Q1 7:19 | 4 | 13 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| SF | Q1 5:08 | 3 | 51 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| ARI | Q1 4:13 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–17 |
| SF | Q1 2:24 | 8 | 38 | Touchdown | 0–24 |
| ARI | Q2 14:05 | 9 | 63 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| SF | Q2 9:22 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–24 |
| ARI | Q2 6:59 | 15 | 87 | Turnover | 7–24 |
| SF | Q2 0:56 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–31 |
| ARI | Q2 0:12 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–31 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–31 |
| ARI | Q3 13:18 | 5 | 57 | Touchdown | 14–31 |
| SF | Q3 11:18 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–31 |
| ARI | Q3 8:57 | 12 | 68 | Touchdown | 21–31 |
| SF | Q3 3:27 | 7 | 25 | Touchdown | 21–38 |
| ARI | Q4 14:55 | 13 | 74 | Touchdown | 28–38 |
| SF | Q4 8:23 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 28–38 |
| ARI | Q4 7:01 | 5 | 49 | Turnover | 28–38 |
| SF | Q4 5:25 | 11 | 61 | End of half | 28–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 24/36 | 286 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 15 | 54 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Jake Plummer | 5 | 48 | 9.6 | 1 |
| Marcel Shipp | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 2 |
| David Boston | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 6 | 11 | 83 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 6 | 7 | 76 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 4 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Freddie Jones | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Bryan Gilmore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 18/28 | 252 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 18 | 51 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Garrison Hearst | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 8 | 11 | 132 | 2 |
| Tai Streets | 2 | 4 | 62 | 1 |
| Kevan Barlow | 4 | 4 | 35 | 1 |
| Garrison Hearst | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Justin Swift | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.4%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.18