Closing spread
MIN -2
Total
46
Model margin
+6.2est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play+0.060
- 40.0%Success rate45.1%
- -0.089EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.197EPA / rush+0.071
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.3%
- 33.7%Third-down rate43.6%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
- 1.35Points / drive1.93
- 3.2%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed+0.082
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 24-30-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 42 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 8:00 | 15 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 0:00 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q2 15:00 | 11 | 62 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q2 8:51 | 6 | 30 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| MIN | Q2 7:29 | 11 | 62 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| CHI | Q2 1:42 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–10 |
| MIN | Q2 0:55 | 3 | 13 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| CHI | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–13 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–13 |
| MIN | Q3 12:57 | 5 | 66 | Touchdown | 0–20 |
| CHI | Q3 10:19 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 0–20 |
| MIN | Q3 8:53 | 4 | 25 | Turnover | 0–20 |
| CHI | Q3 7:25 | 1 | -1 | Safety | 0–22 |
| MIN | Q3 7:13 | 11 | 45 | Field goal | 0–25 |
| CHI | Q3 1:24 | 5 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–25 |
| MIN | Q4 14:54 | 11 | 45 | Punt | 7–25 |
| CHI | Q4 6:57 | 5 | 46 | Turnover on downs | 7–25 |
| MIN | Q4 5:31 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–25 |
| CHI | Q4 4:45 | 5 | -1 | Turnover | 7–25 |
| MIN | Q4 3:57 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–25 |
| CHI | Q4 2:12 | 6 | 47 | Turnover on downs | 7–25 |
| MIN | Q4 0:52 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 7–25 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 15/25 | 176 | 1 | 1 |
| Henry Burris | 1/6 | 28 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Burris | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 9 | 18 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marty Booker | 4 | 9 | 80 | 1 |
| Dez White | 4 | 5 | 65 | 0 |
| Marcus Robinson | 1 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Ahmad Merritt | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 22/29 | 216 | 1 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 29 | 106 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 9 | 11 | 119 | 1 |
| Michael Bennett | 6 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.3%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.64
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.16