Closing spread
NE -3
Total
46
Model margin
+1.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.065EPA / play-0.000
- 49.4%Success rate43.6%
- +0.067EPA / dropback+0.037
- +0.062EPA / rush-0.064
- 8.4%Explosive rate6.3%
- 37.9%Third-down rate43.1%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.76Points / drive1.69
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%
- +0.007EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 13–10 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. NE are 11-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 18/23 | 229 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 26 | 111 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Mike Anderson | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ashley Lelie | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Scottie Montgomery | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed McCaffrey | 8 | 8 | 116 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 7 | 10 | 54 | 0 |
| Ashley Lelie | 1 | 1 | 40 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 2 | 4 | 19 | 1 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 15/29 | 130 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 13 | 58 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 7 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 3 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| David Givens | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| David Patten | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
47.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.49