Closing spread
JAX -11
Total
38
Model margin
+0.8est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.226EPA / play-0.269
- 33.0%Success rate40.3%
- -0.172EPA / dropback-0.158
- -0.307EPA / rush-0.424
- 5.8%Explosive rate8.6%
- 25.7%Third-down rate33.9%
- 39.5%Red-zone TD rate29.3%
- 0.66Points / drive0.22
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.4%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed+0.014
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 33–16 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. JAX are 20-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 13:19 | 6 | 35 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 9:23 | 7 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 4:45 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 2:48 | 3 | 4 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 1:26 | 4 | 19 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q2 14:50 | 7 | 65 | Opp touchdown | 6–1 |
| HOU | Q2 12:03 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 6–1 |
| JAX | Q2 10:59 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 6–1 |
| HOU | Q2 9:59 | 4 | 41 | Touchdown | 13–1 |
| JAX | Q2 8:02 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 13–1 |
| HOU | Q2 6:00 | 3 | 3 | Safety | 15–1 |
| JAX | Q2 5:06 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 15–1 |
| HOU | Q2 3:31 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 15–1 |
| JAX | Q2 1:30 | 6 | 39 | Missed field goal | 15–1 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 45 | Field goal | 18–1 |
| JAX | Q3 11:31 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 18–1 |
| HOU | Q3 8:37 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 18–1 |
| JAX | Q3 8:34 | 3 | 12 | Field goal | 18–4 |
| HOU | Q3 6:08 | 3 | -12 | Punt | 18–4 |
| JAX | Q3 4:12 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 18–4 |
| HOU | Q3 1:00 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 26–4 |
| JAX | Q4 11:28 | 7 | 55 | Opp touchdown | 32–5 |
| HOU | Q4 7:42 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 32–5 |
| JAX | Q4 5:40 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 32–5 |
| HOU | Q4 3:05 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 35–5 |
| JAX | Q4 2:11 | 10 | 21 | Turnover on downs | 35–5 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 16/34 | 202 | 1 | 0 |
| David Carr | 11/18 | 184 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 25 | 84 | 3.4 | 0 |
| James Allen | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Jonathan Wells | 17 | 27 | 1.6 | 1 |
| David Carr | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 4 | 9 | 80 | 1 |
| Billy Miller | 3 | 4 | 78 | 1 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 3 | 3 | 60 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 4 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Jabari Holloway | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| James Allen | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jarrod Baxter | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| JaJuan Dawson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Ross | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
40.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.81