Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
38.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play+0.004
- 41.7%Success rate43.3%
- +0.151EPA / dropback+0.036
- -0.177EPA / rush-0.043
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.8%
- 38.8%Third-down rate39.3%
- 44.5%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 1.46Points / drive1.81
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.060EPA / play allowed-0.178
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 20/34 | 251 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 15 | 79 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Delvin Joyce | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 5 | 6 | 92 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 6 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 2 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Charles Stackhouse | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Marcellus Rivers | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Delvin Joyce | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 14/30 | 137 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 24 | 126 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 8 | 107 | 13.4 | 1 |
| Dorsey Levens | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Thrash | 7 | 11 | 69 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 3 | 8 | 20 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.69