Closing spread
OAK -2.5
Total
55.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. KC are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 49 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 10:51 | 11 | 24 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 4:41 | 11 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| KC | Q1 0:12 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LV | Q2 12:58 | 12 | 39 | Punt | 7–3 |
| KC | Q2 7:18 | 12 | 75 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| LV | Q2 2:35 | 5 | 33 | Punt | 7–6 |
| KC | Q2 1:26 | 7 | 64 | Turnover | 7–6 |
| LV | Q2 0:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–6 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 51 | Turnover | 7–6 |
| LV | Q3 12:55 | 7 | 40 | Punt | 7–6 |
| KC | Q3 9:27 | 13 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| LV | Q3 1:22 | 12 | 55 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| KC | Q4 11:34 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 10–13 |
| LV | Q4 10:02 | 5 | 39 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| KC | Q4 7:42 | 5 | 4 | Punt | 10–13 |
| LV | Q4 4:57 | 2 | 20 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| KC | Q4 4:39 | 6 | 12 | Touchdown | 10–20 |
| LV | Q4 1:55 | 10 | 73 | End of half | 10–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 18/30 | 208 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 23 | 91 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Trent Green | 2 | 32 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 6 | 6 | 93 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 6 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Marc Boerigter | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Jason Dunn | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.06
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.63
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.