2002 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Tommy Maddox

31·18

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Jeff Blake

Ravens Stadium · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

37.5

Model margin

+0.7est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapRavens
  • +0.008EPA / play-0.058
  • 43.3%Success rate41.6%
  • +0.070EPA / dropback-0.044
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.078
  • 9.7%Explosive rate8.3%
  • 42.2%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 51.8%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 1.71Points / drive1.09
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.086EPA / play allowed-0.021

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–BAL
PITQ1 15:00568Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 12:371550Punt7–0
PITQ1 5:22780Touchdown14–0
BALQ1 1:0800Touchdown14–0
PITQ1 1:01315Touchdown21–0
BALQ2 14:531165Field goal21–3
PITQ2 10:081049Touchdown28–3
BALQ2 5:2143Punt28–3
PITQ2 4:0252Punt28–3
BALQ2 2:033-1Punt28–3
PITQ2 1:16422Turnover28–3
BALQ2 0:52413End of half28–3
BALQ3 15:001372Touchdown28–11
PITQ3 8:5838Punt28–11
BALQ3 7:10318Turnover28–11
PITQ3 6:1739Field goal31–11
BALQ3 4:111590Touchdown31–18
PITQ4 11:11621Punt31–18
BALQ4 7:44650Turnover31–18
PITQ4 4:3936Punt31–18
BALQ4 3:2110Turnover31–18
PITQ4 3:1446Turnover on downs31–18
BALQ4 2:0520Turnover31–18
PITQ4 1:5200End of half31–18

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tommy Maddox18/2417221
Kordell Stewart1/1700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Amos Zereoue13534.12
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala8212.60
Antwaan Randle El11616.00
Kordell Stewart100.00
Tommy Maddox4-9-2.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hines Ward88970
Plaxico Burress57552
Terance Mathis23130
Mark Bruener1140
Antwaan Randle El1130
Tommy Maddox0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Blake29/5029813
Todd Heap0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis13342.60
Jeff Blake6254.21
Chester Taylor284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Taylor713820
Todd Heap610510
Brandon Stokley412500
Jamal Lewis56500
Ron Johnson33260
John Jones22241
Terry Jones13100
Chester Taylor1150
Javin Hunter0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.27%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.9%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.96
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.68