Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.058
- 43.3%Success rate41.6%
- +0.070EPA / dropback-0.044
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.078
- 9.7%Explosive rate8.3%
- 42.2%Third-down rate38.2%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.71Points / drive1.09
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.086EPA / play allowed-0.021
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 18/24 | 172 | 2 | 1 |
| Kordell Stewart | 1/1 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amos Zereoue | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 4 | -9 | -2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 8 | 8 | 97 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 5 | 7 | 55 | 2 |
| Terance Mathis | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 29/50 | 298 | 1 | 3 |
| Todd Heap | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 13 | 34 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Taylor | 7 | 13 | 82 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 6 | 10 | 51 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 4 | 12 | 50 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Ron Johnson | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| John Jones | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Terry Jones | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Javin Hunter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.9%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.96
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.68