Closing spread
DAL -2
Total
37
Model margin
+2.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.190
- 44.0%Success rate37.2%
- +0.097EPA / dropback-0.193
- -0.070EPA / rush-0.185
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- 43.0%Third-down rate23.8%
- 47.4%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.60Points / drive0.79
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.3%
- +0.049EPA / play allowed-0.059
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 5-9-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 13:02 | 10 | 43 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 8:06 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 4:25 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 1:47 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 1:02 | 3 | 16 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q2 14:44 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q2 13:42 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q2 12:19 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q2 10:57 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q2 7:49 | 14 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q2 0:12 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q3 14:02 | 4 | 10 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q3 12:50 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q3 10:31 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q3 6:23 | 11 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| SEA | Q3 0:26 | 11 | 74 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| DAL | Q4 10:16 | 8 | 48 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| SEA | Q4 5:35 | 13 | 37 | Field goal | 17–14 |
| DAL | Q4 0:25 | 2 | 13 | End of half | 17–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 12/19 | 131 | 0 | 1 |
| Trent Dilfer | 7/12 | 46 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 23 | 58 | 2.5 | 2 |
| Maurice Morris | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Engram | 6 | 6 | 69 | 0 |
| Darrell Jackson | 2 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 7 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Hutchinson | 12/24 | 145 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 24 | 109 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Troy Hambrick | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Chad Hutchinson | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Galloway | 4 | 9 | 62 | 1 |
| Tony McGee | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Darnay Scott | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Antonio Bryant | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Ken-Yon Rambo | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| James Whalen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.63
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.85
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.78