Closing spread
TEN -4.5
Total
42
Model margin
-1.0est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play-0.063
- 44.9%Success rate43.4%
- +0.151EPA / dropback-0.085
- -0.095EPA / rush-0.027
- 6.9%Explosive rate6.3%
- 43.7%Third-down rate39.3%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
- 1.58Points / drive1.04
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.038EPA / play allowed+0.080
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 10–10 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. CIN are 12-7-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 61 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| TEN | Q1 11:01 | 7 | 60 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 7:39 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TEN | Q1 6:18 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 5:13 | 11 | 79 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| TEN | Q2 13:40 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–14 |
| CIN | Q2 10:47 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 0–14 |
| TEN | Q2 7:45 | 4 | 19 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| CIN | Q2 5:39 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 3–14 |
| TEN | Q2 4:56 | 9 | 41 | Field goal | 6–14 |
| CIN | Q2 1:04 | 3 | 11 | End of half | 6–14 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 51 | Touchdown | 13–14 |
| CIN | Q3 13:19 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–14 |
| TEN | Q3 11:42 | 6 | 70 | Touchdown | 20–14 |
| CIN | Q3 8:49 | 6 | 51 | Field goal | 20–17 |
| TEN | Q3 5:10 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 20–17 |
| CIN | Q3 3:23 | 9 | 91 | Touchdown | 20–24 |
| TEN | Q4 13:32 | 7 | 58 | Touchdown | 27–24 |
| CIN | Q4 10:07 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 27–24 |
| TEN | Q4 9:57 | 3 | 13 | Field goal | 30–24 |
| CIN | Q4 8:04 | 14 | 67 | Turnover on downs | 30–24 |
| TEN | Q4 1:08 | 2 | 7 | End of half | 30–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 16/27 | 215 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 21 | 106 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 7 | 9 | 98 | 2 |
| Kevin Dyson | 5 | 9 | 80 | 1 |
| Drew Bennett | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Justin McCareins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 17/23 | 193 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 30 | 138 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Brandon Bennett | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson | 6 | 7 | 86 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Matt Schobel | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Brandon Bennett | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Danny Farmer | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.4%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.98