Closing spread
HOU -2.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play-0.226
- 43.4%Success rate33.0%
- -0.085EPA / dropback-0.172
- -0.027EPA / rush-0.307
- 6.3%Explosive rate5.8%
- 39.3%Third-down rate25.7%
- 50.2%Red-zone TD rate39.5%
- 1.04Points / drive0.66
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.080EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39 points. HOU are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 22/27 | 263 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 22 | 92 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Warrick | 7 | 7 | 86 | 1 |
| Chad Johnson | 3 | 5 | 41 | 1 |
| Matt Schobel | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 2 | 2 | 38 | 2 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 18/32 | 199 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Wells | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
| James Allen | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| David Carr | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jarrod Baxter | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Bradford | 5 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| Billy Miller | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| JaJuan Dawson | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| James Allen | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Jabari Holloway | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.48