Closing spread
HOU -2.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play-0.226
- 43.4%Success rate33.0%
- -0.085EPA / dropback-0.172
- -0.027EPA / rush-0.307
- 6.3%Explosive rate5.8%
- 39.3%Third-down rate25.7%
- 50.2%Red-zone TD rate39.5%
- 1.04Points / drive0.66
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.080EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 38.1 points. HOU are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 22 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CIN | Q1 10:54 | 10 | 68 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| HOU | Q1 5:34 | 11 | 69 | Opp touchdown | 10–3 |
| CIN | Q1 0:00 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 10–3 |
| HOU | Q2 15:00 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 10–3 |
| CIN | Q2 11:29 | 10 | 78 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| HOU | Q2 5:51 | 9 | 33 | Missed field goal | 17–3 |
| CIN | Q2 2:02 | 7 | 64 | Touchdown | 24–3 |
| HOU | Q2 0:42 | 3 | 35 | Missed field goal | 24–3 |
| CIN | Q2 0:01 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 24–3 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 24–3 |
| HOU | Q3 14:01 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 24–3 |
| CIN | Q3 13:37 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 24–3 |
| HOU | Q3 9:58 | 11 | 32 | Punt | 24–3 |
| CIN | Q3 3:38 | 13 | 97 | Touchdown | 31–3 |
| HOU | Q4 11:28 | 4 | 18 | Turnover | 31–3 |
| CIN | Q4 9:47 | 7 | 44 | Touchdown | 38–3 |
| HOU | Q4 6:01 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 38–3 |
| CIN | Q4 3:44 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 38–3 |
| HOU | Q4 0:15 | 2 | 31 | End of half | 38–3 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 22/27 | 263 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 22 | 92 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Warrick | 7 | 7 | 86 | 1 |
| Chad Johnson | 3 | 5 | 41 | 1 |
| Matt Schobel | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 2 | 2 | 38 | 2 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 18/32 | 199 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Wells | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
| James Allen | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| David Carr | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jarrod Baxter | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Bradford | 5 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| Billy Miller | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| JaJuan Dawson | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| James Allen | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Jabari Holloway | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.48