Closing spread
DET -3
Total
37
Model margin
+2.7est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.190EPA / play-0.148
- 37.2%Success rate34.3%
- -0.193EPA / dropback-0.156
- -0.185EPA / rush-0.134
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.1%
- 23.8%Third-down rate29.8%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
- 0.79Points / drive0.96
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.059EPA / play allowed+0.065
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–7 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DET are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Hutchinson | 22/39 | 208 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 16 | 39 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Antonio Bryant | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chad Hutchinson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Galloway | 6 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Ken-Yon Rambo | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Darnay Scott | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| James Whalen | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Antonio Bryant | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 14/33 | 104 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 19 | 50 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Az-Zahir Hakim | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 3 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Az-Zahir Hakim | 2 | 8 | 17 | 0 |
| John Owens | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Scotty Anderson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Mikhael Ricks | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.74