2002 · Week 9

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Chad Hutchinson

7·9

Lions

Detroit

QB Joey Harrington

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -3

Total

37

Model margin

+2.7est.

DET perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapLions
  • -0.190EPA / play-0.148
  • 37.2%Success rate34.3%
  • -0.193EPA / dropback-0.156
  • -0.185EPA / rush-0.134
  • 9.2%Explosive rate8.1%
  • 23.8%Third-down rate29.8%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
  • 0.79Points / drive0.96
  • 3.3%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.059EPA / play allowed+0.065

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 11–7 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DET are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14DAL @ DET30–44DET
2024 · W6DET @ DAL47–9DET
2023 · W17DET @ DAL19–20DAL
2022 · W7DET @ DAL6–24DAL
2019 · W11DAL @ DET35–27DAL
2018 · W4DET @ DAL24–26DAL
2016 · W16DET @ DAL21–42DAL
2014 · playoffsDET @ DAL20–24DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–DET
DETQ1 15:00824Punt0–0
DALQ1 10:03721Punt0–0
DETQ1 6:0335Punt0–0
DALQ1 4:3732Punt0–0
DETQ1 3:3530Punt0–0
DALQ1 1:50633Punt0–0
DETQ2 12:5032Punt0–0
DALQ2 11:45420Punt0–0
DETQ2 8:5948Punt0–0
DALQ2 7:221-9Turnover0–0
DETQ2 7:1620Turnover0–0
DALQ2 7:03637Punt0–0
DETQ2 4:0032Punt0–0
DALQ2 3:003-9Punt0–0
DETQ2 2:1769Punt0–0
DALQ2 0:48110End of half0–0
DALQ3 15:002-6Turnover0–0
DETQ3 14:1448Field goal0–3
DALQ3 12:066-4Punt0–3
DETQ3 8:36620Field goal0–6
DALQ3 6:09823Punt0–6
DETQ3 2:3228Turnover0–6
DALQ3 2:0033Punt0–6
DETQ3 0:2631Punt0–6
DALQ4 13:481276Touchdown7–6
DETQ4 7:42523Punt7–6
DALQ4 5:3138Punt7–6
DETQ4 3:47838Field goal7–9
DALQ4 0:48617End of half7–9

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Hutchinson22/3920800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith16392.40
Michael Wiley2168.00
Troy Hambrick5122.41
Antonio Bryant133.00
Chad Hutchinson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joey Galloway68560
Ken-Yon Rambo23420
Tony McGee36330
Darnay Scott36270
Troy Hambrick23170
James Whalen23170
Antonio Bryant1560

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joey Harrington14/3310402

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart19502.60
Mike McMahon111.00
Az-Zahir Hakim2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Stewart46410
Bill Schroeder37230
Az-Zahir Hakim28170
John Owens11120
Scotty Anderson1250
Mikhael Ricks1520
Aveion Cason0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.4%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.74