Closing spread
SD -8.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.5est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 7–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. SD are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 28/37 | 253 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaMont Jordan | 13 | 107 | 8.2 | 1 |
| Curtis Martin | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Chad Pennington | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laveranues Coles | 5 | 8 | 60 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 3 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 5 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 4 | 6 | 26 | 1 |
| LaMont Jordan | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Chris Baker | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.49
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.