Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
37.5
Model margin
-0.9est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.129
- 43.3%Success rate40.0%
- +0.036EPA / dropback-0.089
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.197
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.5%
- 39.3%Third-down rate33.7%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.81Points / drive1.35
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.2%
- -0.178EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 41 points. CHI are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 18/33 | 209 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Duce Staley | 19 | 39 | 2.1 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 4 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 2 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 19/36 | 205 | 0 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 16 | 52 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Leon Johnson | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jim Miller | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 5 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Ahmad Merritt | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Dez White | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Marcus Robinson | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| John Davis | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Fred Baxter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.7%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.88