2002 · Week 9

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

19·13

Bears

Chicago

QB Jim Miller

Memorial Stadium (Champaign) · outdoors · astroplay · 38°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PHI -7

Total

37.5

Model margin

-0.9est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

4.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBears
  • +0.004EPA / play-0.129
  • 43.3%Success rate40.0%
  • +0.036EPA / dropback-0.089
  • -0.043EPA / rush-0.197
  • 8.8%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 39.3%Third-down rate33.7%
  • 53.1%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.35
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.2%
  • -0.178EPA / play allowed-0.001

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CHI are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3PHI @ CHI7–27CHI
2025 · W13CHI @ PHI24–15CHI
2022 · W15PHI @ CHI25–20PHI
2019 · W9CHI @ PHI14–22PHI
2018 · playoffsPHI @ CHI16–15PHI
2017 · W12CHI @ PHI3–31PHI
2016 · W2PHI @ CHI29–14PHI
2013 · W16CHI @ PHI11–54PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–CHI
CHIQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:53928Punt0–0
CHIQ1 8:41522Punt0–0
PHIQ1 5:36823Turnover on downs0–0
CHIQ1 3:5958Punt0–0
PHIQ1 2:0887Punt0–0
CHIQ2 14:471061Field goal0–3
PHIQ2 9:281143Touchdown7–3
CHIQ2 4:42769Touchdown7–10
PHIQ2 1:17438Turnover7–10
CHIQ2 0:38442Field goal7–13
PHIQ3 15:00954Field goal10–13
CHIQ3 10:223-4Punt10–13
PHIQ3 9:04619Field goal13–13
CHIQ3 5:4262Punt13–13
PHIQ3 2:54720Punt13–13
CHIQ4 14:5220Turnover13–13
PHIQ4 14:4239Field goal16–13
CHIQ4 13:2932Punt16–13
PHIQ4 11:28722Turnover on downs16–13
CHIQ4 8:08511Punt16–13
PHIQ4 6:22548Field goal19–13
CHIQ4 3:421242Turnover on downs19–13
PHIQ4 0:111-2End of half19–13

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb18/3320901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donovan McNabb9465.11
Duce Staley19392.10
James Thrash3186.00
Brian Westbrook4123.00
Dorsey Levens122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Freeman47670
Todd Pinkston26630
Chad Lewis33230
Duce Staley25190
James Thrash36190
Dorsey Levens22120
Cecil Martin1240
Freddie Mitchell1120

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jim Miller19/3620500
Marty Booker0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Anthony Thomas16523.31
Leon Johnson7223.10
Jim Miller100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anthony Thomas46520
Stanley Pritchett44390
Marty Booker58370
Ahmad Merritt24300
Dez White24270
Marcus Robinson14120
John Davis1580
Fred Baxter0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

4.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.7%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.52
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-0.88