2002 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Tommy Maddox

23·20

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PIT -3.5

Total

44

Model margin

+1.5est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBrowns
  • +0.008EPA / play+0.007
  • 43.3%Success rate42.2%
  • +0.070EPA / dropback+0.050
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.064
  • 9.7%Explosive rate7.9%
  • 42.2%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 51.8%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 1.71Points / drive1.59
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.086EPA / play allowed-0.025

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 43–14–1 since 1999

Meetings average 39 points. CLE are 26-30-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CLE @ PIT6–27PIT
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CLE
PITQ1 15:00712Opp touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 9:4700Opp touchdown0–7
PITQ1 9:47853Field goal3–7
CLEQ1 5:33520Punt3–7
PITQ1 2:59825Punt3–7
CLEQ2 14:41774Touchdown3–14
PITQ2 11:45750Touchdown10–14
CLEQ2 8:2930Punt10–14
PITQ2 6:181075Touchdown17–14
CLEQ2 1:5636Punt17–14
PITQ2 1:12726Turnover17–14
CLEQ2 0:1600End of half17–14
CLEQ3 15:0022Turnover17–14
PITQ3 14:12939Turnover on downs17–14
CLEQ3 9:48518Turnover17–14
PITQ3 7:27516Missed field goal17–14
CLEQ3 5:1633Punt17–14
PITQ3 3:431056Field goal20–14
CLEQ4 14:1110Turnover20–14
PITQ4 13:503-4Field goal23–14
CLEQ4 11:553-6Punt23–14
PITQ4 11:06835Turnover on downs23–14
CLEQ4 6:52873Touchdown23–20
PITQ4 4:3268Punt23–20
CLEQ4 0:5744End of half23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tommy Maddox23/4223921
Antwaan Randle El2/22600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Amos Zereoue291113.80
Tommy Maddox382.70
Hines Ward188.00
Antwaan Randle El122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hines Ward915791
Plaxico Burress46690
Amos Zereoue56620
Antwaan Randle El36180
Terance Mathis13130
Mark Bruener1111
John Allred0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch15/2418122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamel White6193.20
William Green4102.50
Dennis Northcutt155.00
Tim Couch320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quincy Morgan45981
Andre Davis35310
Dennis Northcutt23270
Jamel White33180
Kevin Johnson2470
Steve Heiden1111
Mark Campbell0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.2%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.04
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.53