Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.5est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play+0.007
- 43.3%Success rate42.2%
- +0.070EPA / dropback+0.050
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.064
- 9.7%Explosive rate7.9%
- 42.2%Third-down rate40.7%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 1.71Points / drive1.59
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.086EPA / play allowed-0.025
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 23/42 | 239 | 2 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2/2 | 26 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amos Zereoue | 29 | 111 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 9 | 15 | 79 | 1 |
| Plaxico Burress | 4 | 6 | 69 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 5 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| John Allred | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 15/24 | 181 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamel White | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| William Green | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Morgan | 4 | 5 | 98 | 1 |
| Andre Davis | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Steve Heiden | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Mark Campbell | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.04
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.53