Closing spread
STL -5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. ARI are 24-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 90 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 11:18 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 9:38 | 8 | 49 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 4:09 | 6 | 16 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 0:44 | 4 | 23 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| ARI | Q2 13:09 | 7 | 51 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| LA | Q2 9:09 | 6 | 37 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| ARI | Q2 6:14 | 8 | 54 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| LA | Q2 2:31 | 8 | 77 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| ARI | Q2 0:53 | 5 | 17 | End of half | 17–7 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–7 |
| LA | Q3 13:19 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 17–7 |
| ARI | Q3 10:29 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 17–7 |
| LA | Q3 7:56 | 10 | 49 | Punt | 17–7 |
| ARI | Q3 2:47 | 10 | 43 | Punt | 17–7 |
| LA | Q4 12:59 | 5 | 14 | Opp touchdown | 17–14 |
| ARI | Q4 10:36 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 17–14 |
| LA | Q4 10:36 | 10 | 39 | Field goal | 20–14 |
| ARI | Q4 3:46 | 4 | 6 | Turnover on downs | 20–14 |
| LA | Q4 2:47 | 5 | 30 | Touchdown | 27–14 |
| ARI | Q4 1:53 | 3 | 19 | Turnover | 27–14 |
| LA | Q4 1:03 | 2 | -4 | End of half | 27–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 19/30 | 193 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 12 | 25 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Sanders | 6 | 8 | 67 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Jason McAddley | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Freddie Jones | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| David Boston | 1 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Steve Bush | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.60
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.