Closing spread
IND -3
Total
47
Model margin
+0.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play+0.016
- 44.9%Success rate44.3%
- +0.151EPA / dropback+0.112
- -0.095EPA / rush-0.138
- 6.9%Explosive rate7.7%
- 43.7%Third-down rate44.5%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 1.58Points / drive1.70
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.038EPA / play allowed-0.065
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-20 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 14/19 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 22 | 95 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 5 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 3 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Frank Wycheck | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Drew Bennett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 37/50 | 327 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Mungro | 16 | 60 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 11 | 16 | 99 | 1 |
| Reggie Wayne | 5 | 6 | 93 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 7 | 11 | 42 | 0 |
| James Mungro | 6 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Drew Haddad | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Mike Roberg | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.10
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.46