2002 · Week 9
Final
Seahawks Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 49°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
SEA -2
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.056EPA / play+0.035
- 41.7%Success rate44.0%
- -0.037EPA / dropback+0.097
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.070
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.4%
- 39.7%Third-down rate43.0%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
- 1.22Points / drive1.60
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.082EPA / play allowed+0.049
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 8–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39 points. SEA are 5-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Matthews | 10/27 | 114 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Watson | 23 | 110 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Shane Matthews | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Gardner | 4 | 8 | 47 | 1 |
| Kenny Watson | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Darnerien McCants | 1 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| Chris Doering | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrius Thompson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 28/44 | 264 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 19 | 67 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koren Robinson | 8 | 15 | 100 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 6 | 6 | 71 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 8 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| James Williams | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.06
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.50