2002 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jon Kitna

27·38

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Jeff Blake

Ravens Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

BAL -4

Total

37

Model margin

+3.3est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapRavens
  • -0.063EPA / play-0.058
  • 43.4%Success rate41.6%
  • -0.085EPA / dropback-0.044
  • -0.027EPA / rush-0.078
  • 6.3%Explosive rate8.3%
  • 39.3%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 50.2%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 1.04Points / drive1.09
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.9%
  • +0.080EPA / play allowed-0.021

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BAL are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–BAL
BALQ1 15:00974Touchdown6–7
CINQ1 11:1600Touchdown7–7
BALQ1 11:0337Punt7–7
CINQ1 9:09514Turnover7–7
CINQ1 6:53522Punt7–7
BALQ1 3:51617Punt7–7
CINQ1 1:1235Opp touchdown7–14
BALQ2 14:5300Opp touchdown7–14
CINQ2 14:5331Punt7–14
BALQ2 12:54632Punt7–14
CINQ2 9:51891Touchdown14–14
BALQ2 5:42522Field goal14–17
CINQ2 2:59421Opp touchdown14–24
BALQ2 1:2300Opp touchdown14–24
CINQ2 1:23533Turnover14–24
BALQ2 0:1700End of half14–24
CINQ3 15:00943Field goal17–24
BALQ3 9:5732Punt17–24
CINQ3 8:5739Punt17–24
BALQ3 7:29980Touchdown17–31
CINQ3 2:48943Field goal20–31
BALQ4 13:29764Turnover20–31
CINQ4 9:52414Turnover20–31
BALQ4 7:33319Touchdown20–38
CINQ4 6:141476Touchdown27–38
BALQ4 2:28411End of half27–38

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna28/4127223

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Dillon211024.90
Brandon Bennett6203.30
Michael Westbrook111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chad Johnson7111101
Corey Dillon57480
Peter Warrick55331
Ron Dugans23190
T.J. Houshmandzadeh24190
Nicolas Luchey22160
Matt Schobel1180
Michael Westbrook1260
Brandon Bennett1100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Blake16/2418310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis211356.42
Chester Taylor5255.00
Travis Taylor155.00
Alan Ricard100.00
Jeff Blake4-3-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Todd Heap46650
Travis Taylor77521
Brandon Stokley14330
Terry Jones23220
Alan Ricard1260
Javin Hunter1150
Jamal Lewis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.74
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.31