Closing spread
BAL -4
Total
37
Model margin
+3.3est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play-0.058
- 43.4%Success rate41.6%
- -0.085EPA / dropback-0.044
- -0.027EPA / rush-0.078
- 6.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- 39.3%Third-down rate38.2%
- 50.2%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.04Points / drive1.09
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.080EPA / play allowed-0.021
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. BAL are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 28/41 | 272 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 21 | 102 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson | 7 | 11 | 110 | 1 |
| Corey Dillon | 5 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 5 | 5 | 33 | 1 |
| Ron Dugans | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Matt Schobel | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 16/24 | 183 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 21 | 135 | 6.4 | 2 |
| Chester Taylor | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Alan Ricard | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Heap | 4 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 7 | 7 | 52 | 1 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Terry Jones | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Alan Ricard | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Javin Hunter | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.74
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.31