Closing spread
GB -10.5
Total
42
Model margin
+5.6est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play+0.010
- 34.3%Success rate43.5%
- -0.156EPA / dropback+0.072
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.081
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.6%
- 29.8%Third-down rate38.0%
- 49.8%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
- 0.96Points / drive1.67
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.065EPA / play allowed-0.079
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. GB are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 20/44 | 236 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 15 | 122 | 8.1 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Az-Zahir Hakim | 7 | 14 | 143 | 1 |
| Germane Crowell | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Scotty Anderson | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Mikhael Ricks | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| Bill Schroeder | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 26/39 | 351 | 2 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 3/3 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najeh Davenport | 10 | 73 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Ahman Green | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 12 | 27 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Driver | 11 | 12 | 130 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 3 | 5 | 82 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 4 | 5 | 53 | 1 |
| Javon Walker | 2 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| David Martin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Ferguson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.8%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.58