2002 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Joey Harrington

14·40

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

GB -10.5

Total

42

Model margin

+5.6est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapPackers
  • -0.148EPA / play+0.010
  • 34.3%Success rate43.5%
  • -0.156EPA / dropback+0.072
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.081
  • 8.1%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 29.8%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 49.8%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
  • 0.96Points / drive1.67
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.6%
  • +0.065EPA / play allowed-0.079

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–GB
GBQ1 15:001279Field goal0–3
DETQ1 7:47164Touchdown7–3
GBQ1 7:3236Punt7–3
DETQ1 5:2633Punt7–3
GBQ1 4:27964Touchdown7–10
DETQ2 14:3538Punt7–10
GBQ2 13:00975Field goal7–13
DETQ2 8:5749Turnover on downs7–13
GBQ2 7:38722Field goal7–16
DETQ2 5:5136Punt7–16
GBQ2 5:02626Punt7–22
DETQ2 1:5510Opp touchdown7–23
GBQ2 1:4700Opp touchdown7–23
DETQ2 1:4737Punt7–23
GBQ2 1:20673Touchdown7–30
DETQ2 0:17223Missed field goal7–30
DETQ3 15:0037Punt7–30
GBQ3 13:06551Field goal7–33
DETQ3 10:3156Punt7–33
GBQ3 9:16969Touchdown7–40
DETQ3 4:55419Punt7–40
GBQ3 3:07312Turnover7–40
DETQ3 1:24424Turnover7–40
GBQ4 14:5533Punt7–40
DETQ4 12:42565Touchdown14–40
GBQ4 10:46213Turnover14–40
DETQ4 10:05931Turnover on downs14–40
GBQ4 6:4133Punt14–40
DETQ4 4:16726Turnover on downs14–40
GBQ4 2:1337Punt14–40
DETQ4 0:59664End of half14–40

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joey Harrington20/4423622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart151228.10
Joey Harrington100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Az-Zahir Hakim7141431
Germane Crowell34320
James Stewart25190
Aveion Cason33170
Scotty Anderson11150
Mikhael Ricks1611
Bill Schroeder0300

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre26/3935120
Doug Pederson3/31200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najeh Davenport10737.31
Ahman Green12504.20
Tony Fisher12272.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donald Driver11121300
Terry Glenn35820
Bubba Franks45531
Javon Walker25500
Ahman Green33200
Tony Fisher45140
David Martin0100
Robert Ferguson0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.58%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.8%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+5.58