2002 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB David Carr

10·17

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

The Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

TEN -9

Total

39.5

Model margin

+7.2est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapTitans
  • -0.226EPA / play+0.043
  • 33.0%Success rate44.9%
  • -0.172EPA / dropback+0.151
  • -0.307EPA / rush-0.095
  • 5.8%Explosive rate6.9%
  • 25.7%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 39.5%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
  • 0.66Points / drive1.58
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
  • -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.038

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. TEN are 19-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–TEN
HOUQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
TENQ1 13:1523Turnover0–0
HOUQ1 12:2845Punt0–0
TENQ1 10:081393Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 2:4535Turnover0–7
TENQ1 1:2830Missed field goal0–7
HOUQ1 0:33414Turnover on downs0–7
TENQ2 14:53817Punt0–7
HOUQ2 10:3346Turnover0–7
TENQ2 9:1036Field goal0–10
HOUQ2 7:021252Field goal3–10
TENQ2 1:0624End of half3–10
TENQ3 15:00766Touchdown3–17
HOUQ3 10:50933Punt3–17
TENQ3 5:4536Punt3–17
HOUQ3 4:05419Turnover on downs3–17
TENQ3 3:18526Turnover3–17
HOUQ3 1:0139Punt3–17
TENQ4 14:1033Punt3–17
HOUQ4 12:14623Punt3–17
TENQ4 10:02723Punt3–17
HOUQ4 5:311073Touchdown10–17
TENQ4 3:0536Punt10–17
HOUQ4 1:523-6Turnover10–17
TENQ4 1:1100End of half10–17

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Carr19/3418212

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Wells18412.30
David Carr3165.30
James Allen252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JaJuan Dawson45750
Jabar Gaffney37260
James Allen44250
Corey Bradford36220
Billy Miller37190
Jarrod Baxter11101
Jonathan Wells1150

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair10/2110922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George25863.40
Steve McNair8465.80
Mike Green4102.50
Justin McCareins122.00
John Simon1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Mason46471
Erron Kinney12200
Shad Meier11171
Kevin Dyson13150
Frank Wycheck12100
Mike Green1140
Eddie George0100
Drew Bennett0200
Justin McCareins0200
John Simon11-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +95.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

1.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.9%

Expected total

41.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.62
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.19