Closing spread
TEN -9
Total
39.5
Model margin
+7.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.226EPA / play+0.043
- 33.0%Success rate44.9%
- -0.172EPA / dropback+0.151
- -0.307EPA / rush-0.095
- 5.8%Explosive rate6.9%
- 25.7%Third-down rate43.7%
- 39.5%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 0.66Points / drive1.58
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.038
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. TEN are 19-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 19/34 | 182 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Wells | 18 | 41 | 2.3 | 0 |
| David Carr | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| James Allen | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JaJuan Dawson | 4 | 5 | 75 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| James Allen | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Billy Miller | 3 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Jarrod Baxter | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| Jonathan Wells | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 10/21 | 109 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 25 | 86 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Justin McCareins | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| John Simon | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 4 | 6 | 47 | 1 |
| Erron Kinney | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Shad Meier | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1 |
| Kevin Dyson | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Drew Bennett | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin McCareins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| John Simon | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.9%
Expected total
41.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.62
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.19