2002 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Aaron Brooks

34·24

Panthers

Carolina

QB Rodney Peete

Ericsson Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

NO -4

Total

39.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

2.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.006EPA / play-0.177
  • 39.0%Success rate35.3%
  • +0.038EPA / dropback-0.144
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.219
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.1%
  • 40.9%Third-down rate29.3%
  • 59.3%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
  • 1.94Points / drive0.82
  • 2.7%Turnover rate3.8%
  • -0.005EPA / play allowed-0.112

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–CAR
NOQ1 15:001060Field goal3–0
CARQ1 9:373-1Punt3–0
NOQ1 7:35423Field goal6–0
CARQ1 5:39612Punt6–0
NOQ1 2:5769Punt6–0
CARQ1 0:0000Punt6–0
CARQ2 15:00427Punt6–0
NOQ2 12:18617Punt6–0
CARQ2 8:51418Punt6–0
NOQ2 6:44371Touchdown13–0
CARQ2 5:46428Turnover13–0
NOQ2 5:0031Punt13–0
CARQ2 3:33876Touchdown13–7
NOQ2 0:34524Turnover on downs13–7
CARQ3 15:00562Field goal13–10
NOQ3 12:0835Punt13–10
CARQ3 10:51761Touchdown13–17
NOQ3 7:2939Punt13–17
CARQ3 5:39518Punt13–17
NOQ3 2:1729Touchdown20–17
CARQ3 1:3531Punt20–17
NOQ3 0:2930Punt20–17
CARQ3 0:07619Punt20–17
NOQ4 12:3738Punt20–17
CARQ4 10:396-5Punt20–17
NOQ4 8:50414Punt20–17
CARQ4 7:02779Touchdown20–24
NOQ4 3:311295Touchdown27–24
CARQ4 0:3141Opp touchdown34–24
NOQ4 0:0000Opp touchdown34–24

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Brooks20/3725910
Jake Delhomme0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Deuce McAllister21713.42
Aaron Brooks4266.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joe Horn6111010
Donte' Stallworth37651
Deuce McAllister45340
Jerome Pathon35320
Boo Williams23160
David Sloan1160
Jake Reed0200

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rodney Peete23/4031021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Smith17804.71
Dee Brown3175.70
Nick Goings482.00
Rodney Peete111.00
Karl Hankton1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Muhsin Muhammad4101120
Steve Smith45680
Kris Mangum22470
Wesley Walls25241
Karl Hankton13220
Lamar Smith45170
Dee Brown3690
Isaac Byrd1170
Jermaine Wiggins1131

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -44.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.2%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.27