Closing spread
NO -4
Total
39.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play-0.177
- 39.0%Success rate35.3%
- +0.038EPA / dropback-0.144
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.219
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.1%
- 40.9%Third-down rate29.3%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
- 1.94Points / drive0.82
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.005EPA / play allowed-0.112
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 20/37 | 259 | 1 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 21 | 71 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Aaron Brooks | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 6 | 11 | 101 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 3 | 7 | 65 | 1 |
| Deuce McAllister | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Boo Williams | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Peete | 23/40 | 310 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 17 | 80 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Dee Brown | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Rodney Peete | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Karl Hankton | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 4 | 10 | 112 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 5 | 68 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 2 | 2 | 47 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 2 | 5 | 24 | 1 |
| Karl Hankton | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Dee Brown | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.27