Closing spread
DEN -6
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 31 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q1 9:03 | 11 | 53 | Opp touchdown | 10–0 |
| LV | Q1 2:57 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 10–0 |
| DEN | Q1 2:57 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LV | Q1 0:46 | 7 | 69 | Field goal | 13–0 |
| DEN | Q2 12:09 | 15 | 63 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| LV | Q2 5:56 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| DEN | Q2 1:22 | 5 | 20 | End of half | 21–7 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 36 | Punt | 21–7 |
| LV | Q3 10:40 | 12 | 96 | Touchdown | 27–7 |
| DEN | Q3 4:06 | 13 | 53 | Field goal | 27–10 |
| LV | Q4 13:24 | 7 | 72 | Touchdown | 34–10 |
| DEN | Q4 10:41 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 34–10 |
| LV | Q4 8:42 | 8 | 18 | Punt | 34–10 |
| DEN | Q4 5:03 | 10 | 53 | Turnover on downs | 34–10 |
| LV | Q4 2:50 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 34–10 |
| DEN | Q4 1:35 | 7 | 35 | End of half | 34–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 34/47 | 293 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 14 | 50 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Ashley Lelie | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 8 | 11 | 72 | 0 |
| Ashley Lelie | 8 | 11 | 65 | 0 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 6 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.65
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.