Closing spread
DEN -6
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 34/47 | 293 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 14 | 50 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Ashley Lelie | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 8 | 11 | 72 | 0 |
| Ashley Lelie | 8 | 11 | 65 | 0 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 6 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.65
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.